It’s go time in the NFL with the postseason upon us! We took a bit of a step back in week 18 going just 1-2 ATS, but finished the 2024 regular season at 32-23 ATS, and hit four parlays. Our week 18 bonus leans did however go 2-1, so we were able to recoup some. Please remember, to play these picks on a money line parlay and straight-up, because parlays are not a long-term profitable betting strategy.
Our weekly picks will target games seeing respected money and those where Vegas books have a heavy liability—in other words, the betting outcome that Vegas books need to profit on the day. The betting lines discussed are the consensus at Vegas Insider and are subject to change.
Please continue to check this article link or via social media to view the bonus leans section, which will be updated Sunday morning with additional sharp plays or Vegas Sportsbook needs. It’s Wildcard Weekend: Follow or Fade!
Parlay Leg #1: Houston Texans +3.5 (Alternate Spread)
The opening leg of this week’s parlay will be the Houston Texans +3.5 over the Los Angeles Chargers. We got a line hold here with the Chargers getting over 70% of the tickets and spread bets and yet the line is holding steady at 2.5. That indicates there is respected money on the Texans. The books stated they took a ton of early action on the Chargers and will most likely need the Texans to cover by kickoff.
The Chargers are no doubt red hot ATS this season, but Houston is 2-1 ATS this season as an underdog and we always love to side with the books. We will buy a full point to get a betting edge and take the Texans +3.5 for play number one.
Parlay Leg #2: Pittsburgh Steelers +10.5 (Alternate Spread)
The middle leg of our parlay will be the Pittsburgh Steelers +10.5 versus the Baltimore Ravens. Baltimore will be one of the two biggest moneyline chalk bets this weekend, with the Bills being the other. We expect Baltimore to win, but the Steelers to cover. The money and spread bets, and rightfully so, have shifted to the Ravens.
A few reasons here for our Steelers selection, first the Steelers historically defend Lamar Jackson very well. His numbers against the Pittsburgh defense are very pedestrian, with just eight touchdowns and nine picks in eight career games. Second, the Ravens are a familiar divisional foe that Pittsburgh has already beaten this season. Lastly, back in week 16, the game was closer than the final score indicated with the score tied late in the third.
Pittsburgh is 7-3 ATS in their last ten games versus the Ravens and 6-4 ATS in their last ten as an underdog. We will again buy a full point to get the betting edge and take the Steelers +10.5 for number two.
Parlay Leg #3: Buffalo Bills-Denver Broncos Over 46 (Alternate Total)
To close out our parlay we will take over 46 points in the early Sunday game between Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos. As with the Ravens, the Bills on the ML will no doubt be a public play and we won’t be surprised to see the Broncos hang tough and push this game over the implied total. Bo Nix has grown a ton as the season has gone on and is capable of putting up points against a below-average Buffalo pass defense.
Buffalo’s offense is among the best in the league ranked second in points scored per game at 30.9. The over is 7-3 in the Bills’ last ten overall and 8-2 in their last ten at home. Conversely, the over is 7-3 in the Broncos’ last ten games, so give us Broncos-Bills over for play number three.
Total Parlay Odds: ATS +449 / ML +2011
*Odds Via FanDuel Sportsbook and Subject to Change*
Additional Leans: TBD Sunday
