We missed hitting our week 17 parlay, as the Titans fell short in Jacksonville territory and failed to cover. Going 2-1 ATS brought our NFL seasonal record to 31-21 ATS and our bonus leans went 0-2. Remember, we will play these picks on a money line parlay, and straight-up because parlays are not a long-term profitable betting strategy. We tend to avoid public plays, which are traditionally the betting favorites.
Our weekly picks will target games seeing respected money and those where Vegas books have a heavy liability—in other words, the betting outcome that Vegas books need to profit on the day. The betting lines discussed are the consensus at Vegas Insider and are subject to change.
Please continue to check this article link or via social media to view the bonus leans section, which will be updated with additional sharp plays and the Vegas Sportsbook needs. Week 18 will be the most difficult lines to handicap, with many teams resting players. Let’s get right to it with week 18: follow or fade.
Parlay Leg #1: Philadelphia Eagles -1 (Alternate Spread)
The opening leg of this week’s parlay will be the Philadelphia Eagles -1.5 against the New York Giants. We got word midweek that the Eagles will be resting Saquan and Jalen Hurts is still in concussion protocol. Philadelphia still has plenty of good players to beat a New York team that is 5-11 ATS this season. The Vegas books are also telling us plenty by still making Philadelphia the betting favorite despite the absence of Hurts and Barkley.
Eagles backup Kenny Pickett is also questionable but Tanner McKee played just fine last week, going 3-4 for 54 yards and two touchdowns. The Giants are just 3-7 ATS in their last ten road games and conversely, the Eagles are 7-3 ATS in their last ten overall. We will buy the half point and lock in the Eagles -1 for play number one!
Parlay Leg #2: Kansas City Chiefs +10.5 (Alternate Spread)
The middle leg of our parlay will be the Kansas City Chiefs +10.5 over the Denver Broncos. This line flipped on its ear once word got out that Kansas City will be starting back up Carson Wentz. That said, the sharps jumped on the Chiefs at +10, which briefly moved the line down to 9.5.
Denver is in a win-and-get-in playoff scenario but laying that many points with an implied of 40.5 is a difficult cover. Denver is just 1-9 SU in their last ten games versus Kansas City and 3-4-3 ATS in their last ten versus the Chiefs at home. We will buy the half point to get the betting edge and play on the Chiefs +10.5 for play number two.
Parlay Leg #3: San Francisco 49ers +4.5
Our anchor leg is the San Francisco 49ers +4.5 over the Arizona Cardinals. Both of these teams are eliminated from the playoffs but we will gladly take the points here in another game with an implied total in the low 40s. Even with San Francisco starter Brock Purdy out, backup Joshua Dobbs is more than capable of keeping the 49ers in this game.
San Francisco’s overall seasonal ATS record may be sub-par but they are still a profitable 4-1 ATS in their last five overall against the Cardinals. Conversely, Arizona is just 3-6-1 ATS in the last 10 as a favorite and 1-4 ATS in the last five versus the 49ers. Lock in the San Francisco 49ers +4.5 for play number three!
Total Parlay Odds: ATS +567 / ML +2490
*Odds Via FanDuel Sportsbook and Subject to Change*
