Another week, another NFL parlay hits, making it three consecutive weeks of cashing our weekly parlay plays. Let’s stay white hot and make it four straight in week 13. Remember, we also play these picks on a money line parlay and straight up. Last week’s sweep brings our record to 21-15 ATS. However, we missed all of the bonus lean recommendations. We tend to avoid public plays, which are traditionally the betting favorites.
In addition, we play these weekly selections in a money-line parlay and straight up because, in general, parlays are not a profitable betting strategy. Our weekly parlay targets games seeing respected money and those where Vegas books have a heavy liability—in other words, the betting outcome that Vegas books need to profit on the day. The betting lines discussed are the consensus at Vegas Insider and are subject to change.
Please continue to check this article link or via social media to view the bonus leans section, which will be updated with additional sharp plays and the Vegas Sportsbook needs. Due to the holiday games, we will have to grind out another week with four fewer games on the Sunday card. That said, here we go with Week 13: follow or fade.
Parlay Leg #1: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals over 46.5 (Alternate Total)
For the opening leg of the week 13 parlay, we wanted to back the Steelers, but the public is all over them. So we will pivot, play on the game total, and take over 47 as play number one. Cincinnati is 8-3 to the over this season, 8-2 in their last ten overall, and 8-2 in their last ten home games. The Bengals offense has also been humming, averaging 34 points a game in the last three outings.
On the other side, the over is 6-4 in the Steeler’s last ten overall, and 4-1 is their last five as an underdog. This total has been creeping up since it opened at 44.5, it now sits at 47.5. We will buy it back down to 46.5 for play number one in week 13.
Parlay Leg #2: Carolina Panthers +5.5
We take the Carolina Panthers +5.5 in the middle leg over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Carolina is just 4-7 ATS this season, but they are on a 3-0 ATS run of late. The Panthers impressively covered and nearly beat the Chiefs last Sunday at home. They are 3-2 ATS in their five at-home and 3-0 ATS as an underdog. We are, in essence, fading the public here, with Tampa Bay seeing 91% of the tickets and 83% of the money wagers. The dog is barking in this one, the Panthers +5.5 for play number two.
Parlay Leg #3: Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 (Alternate Spread)
The anchor leg of the parlay is the Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 over the Baltimore Ravens. We have a burner line here, as the opening number has dropped a full point to 3. Philadelphia is being backed by the public but is also seeing sharp money. The Eagles are 7-4 ATS this season, 3-0 ATS in their last three overall, and 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.
Baltimore is just 4-5-1 ATS in their last ten at home and 2-3 ATS in the last five as a favorite. Another underdog play, buy back the half point and play the Eagles +3.5 to wrap up week 13.
Total Parlay Odds: ATS +495 / ML +1217
*Odds Via FanDuel Sportsbook and Subject to Change*
Bonus Leans: Jets, Arizona, 49ers, Lac-Atl over
