The Texas State Bobcats (17-17, 7-11 Sun Belt) face the James Madison Dukes (29-3, 15-3) tonight in the Sun Belt tournament semifinal. This game features an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object. The Dukes come into this matchup red-hot, as they haven’t lost since Jan. 27. However, the Bobcats are also winners of six straight and are perfectly capable of upsetting James Madison with a possible NCAA tournament auto-bid at stake.
Texas State is the Cinderella team here, as it finished 11th in the conference regular-season standings. However, the Bobcats have gone on a run thanks to several different players stepping up. Davion Sykes, Jordan Mason, Dontae Horn, and Coleton Benson have all been leading scorers for the squad this month alone. Meanwhile, Terrence Edwards Jr. is clearly the headliner for James Madison, as he’s led the scoring charge in four straight games.
Will the Bobcats be able to ride their team-oriented approach to another upset victory?
Texas State Bobcats vs James Madison Dukes Betting Odds
| Team | Spread | Total | MoneyLine |
| Texas State | +12 -112 |
O 140 -108 |
-550 |
| James Madison | -12 -112 |
U 140 -112 |
-800 |
| **Odds Courtesy of DraftKings** | |||
Texas State Bobcats vs James Madison Dukes Game Details
- Fixture: Texas State Bobcats @ James Madison Dukes
- Date and Time: March 10, 2024 @ 5:30 pm EST
- Location: Pensacola Bay Center in Pensacola, FL
Apex Tale of the Tape
| Texas State | Vs. | James Madison |
| 17-17 | Record | 29-3 |
| 69.9 | Points Per Game | 84.5 |
| 44.3 | FG% | 47.8 |
| 32.8 | 3PT% | 35.8 |
| 35.7 | Rebounds Per Game | 39 |
| 70 | Points Allowed Per Game | 69.2 |
| 43.8 | Defensive FG% | 41.3 |
| 31.7 | Defensive 3PT% | 28.9 |
| 72.7 | Defensive FT% | 73 |
| 24.5 | Defensive Rebounds Per Game | 24 |
| 5-0 | Last 5 W-L | 5-0 |
| 68.4 | Team Pace | 71.4 |
Key Stats
Texas State Bobcats
This is one of those moments where the metrics should be thrown out the window. The Bobcats rank just 183rd in KenPom and 208th in the NET. However, that’s more a product of a slow start to the season, as they’ve scored at least 74 points in every game since February. While Mason leads the squad with 13.2 points per game, any of its aforementioned players could go off at any given moment. Texas State also sports a solid defense, ranking third in the conference in points allowed.
James Madison Dukes
The Dukes have been dominating opponents the entire season, leading the conference in points per game, field goal percentage, and assists. They also rank fifth in the nation in perimeter defense as well as 31st in shooting. While Edwards Jr. runs the offense, James Madison is far from a one-man band. Forward T.J. Bickerstaff also averages 13.8 points and 8.5 rebounds. The Dukes are capable of holding their own in the NCAA Tournament, ranking 53rd in the NET and 65th in KenPom. This is a similar placement to several Power Six programs, such as Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Iowa.
Game Prediction
While Texas State has gotten further than anyone expected them to, their Cinderella run will finally come to an end here. James Madison is simply operating on another level, not displaying any major weakness to speak of. With the Dukes averaging 14.6 more points per game, it’s hard to envision the Bobcats being able to keep up with that offense. Additionally, Texas State is already a mediocre perimeter shooting team, and the Dukes are excellent at defending the three. Expect the Bobcats to struggle from outside, allowing James Madison to control the game.
However, Texas State does have the chops to keep the game close. The spread doesn’t quite account for how well the team has been playing, even blowing out fifth-place Southern Missouri 75-59 in the second round. The Bobcats should be able to cover.
With multiple scoring threats on both sides, they should be able to clear this point total. James Madison has scored at least 8o points in seven straight, while Texas State has registered at least 73 in five straight. Pick the over here.
Final Pick
Texas State Bobcats +12 and Over 140
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Joshua is a diehard Yankees, Jets, Knicks, Rutgers, and Tottenham Hotspur fan. He started his journalism career as the Sports Editor for the Rutgers University newspaper. When he’s not watching a game or writing about one, you can find him in an art-house movie theater or writing a screenplay. Follow him on X @joshvaldez100.
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