Chelsea FC’s Underperforming xG Problems have hamstrung the club for over a decade now, as converting in front of the net has frustrated the Blues and their fans. Despite spending so much money and having one of the best youth programs in the English Premier League, Chelsea still ranks near the bottom in xG (expected goals). So what can the club do? Let’s examine and make a pick for the Blues match this week vs Tottenham Hotspur.
Chelsea FC Has Been Fighting This Problem For Years
After 29 matches played and just nine to go and currently sitting in fourth place in the English Premier League table, Chelsea FC (49 points) still remains in a spot to earn one of the possible five places the league will likely get for the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League.
But one can’t help but think of what better position the Blues (53 goals) might be in if the club was just a little bit more productive in front of the goal. Attacking midfielder-forward Cole Palmer leads the club with 14 goals in EPL play, but the 22-year-old phenom finished with 22 last season and has gone seven straight matches without scoring.
Out with a hamstring injury now, Palmer’s xG (Expected Goals) rating is at 15.25, so with a -1.25 difference, he is one of the big reasons why Chelsea has really struggled to score goals lately. The Blues have netted just four goals in their last four competitions overall and had just seven in five February matches, four coming in a win against Southampton.
But Palmer hasn’t been as bad at converting on the attack as forwards Nicolas Jackson (9 goals)—also out with a hamstring injury—and Christopher Nkunku (3 goals) have been. Jackson currently has an 11.38 xG rating (-2.38), while Nkunku is at 4.68 xG (-1.68).
How Do The Blues Address This Problem?
Getting Palmer and Jackson back to 100 percent seems like the quickest fix, but as all Chelsea fans know, this club has had a number of problems putting the ball in the net since legend Didier Drogba (104 goals) left Stamford Bridge for good in 2015.
Players like Fernando Torres, Romelu Lukaku, and Christian Pulisic never really found their goal-scoring groove in West London.
Paul Merson of Sky Sports thinks Nkunku—signed for £52 million in 2023—is in the wrong spot, saying, “Christopher Nkunku’s position is not on the wing. I feel sorry for him. I like him; I think he’s a good player. He’s one that plays behind the centre-forward.”
Blues forwards (39 goals, 45.23 xG) only rank ahead of Southampton (9 goals, 16.35 xG) in the EPL with a dismal -6.23 xG rating, so getting a reputable scorer (or two) for next season seems like a good idea for manager Enzo Marseca and the club.
According to Football Insider, Chelsea is looking at Inter Milan striker Marcus Thuram (13 goals), a 27-year-old scorer who has a £71 million release clause in his contract with I Nerazzurri and who is also reportedly being pursued by city rival Arsenal.
What is the Best Course of Action to Solve This Scoring Problem?
However, the Blues’ address of this ongoing problem will likely determine any future success in both the EPL and (hopefully) the UCL. But making a key signing or two like Thurman, Viktor Gyorkeres (Sporting CP), Liam Delap (Ipswich Town), and/or Benjamin Šeško (RB Leipzig) in the upcoming summer transfer window seems like the best idea for now.
What’s Up Next For Chelsea?
On Thursday (April 1), Chelsea will welcome city rivals Tottenham Hotspur to Stamford Bridge for an important match for the hosts. Oddsmakers have made the Blues as solid -160 favorites with Spurs priced at +360 with a Draw at +360 in the three-way line market. The Total (goals) has been set at 3.5 with the Under juiced at -130.
In the first meeting between the two London clubs at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium back on Dec. 8, Chelsea won 4-3. With the last three Chelsea matches all ending with 1-0 scorelines and the Blues struggling to score goals again, it seems that backing the Under at 3.5 makes the most sense despite the high-scoring affair in their previous London derby.
Pick
Under 3.5 -130
