Week 4 of the NFL football season is upon us and let’s get to this week’s three-team parlay. In addition, play these picks on a money line parlay and bet them straight up. Last week we went 1-2 ATS and that brings our total to 5-4 ATS year to date.
Our NFL Football Parlays target sharps plays. Sharp plays are betting lines indicating reverse line movements or a line hold. We also identify games where the Vegas books have the most liability on a certain team. In other words, the betting outcome that Vegas books need to profit on the day. Remember that the probability of cashing a three-team parlay is 6/1, so a realistic goal is for us to hit on two or three for the season.
The betting lines discussed are the consensus posted at Vegas Insider and are subject to change. To be a profitable sports bettor, the odds are in your favor to stay away from public plays, usually the betting favorite.
Parlay Leg #1: San Francisco 49ers -9.5 (Alternate Spread)
The opening leg of our parlay for week four is the San Francisco 49ers -9.5 versus the New England Patriots. This is a bounce-back spot for the 49ers after last week’s loss to the Minnesota Vikings. We normally do not like to lay points but the 49ers are coming home against a Patriots team averaging 13 points a game and ranked last offensively. San Francisco is in a get-right spot here and that is why we are using them in parlay play number one.
Parlay Leg #2: Buffalo Bills +3.5 (Alternate Spread)
The middle leg of our parlay is the Buffalo Bills +3 versus the Baltimore Ravens. Even though the majority of spread and money wagers are on the Bills, there is respected money that moved the opening line. Buffalo through three games this season is outscoring opponents 37-16 per game and is 2-1 ATS. Buffalo is 3-2 ATS in the last five and 6-4 ATS in the last ten games. Buffalo is 3-0 SU in their last three and 4-1 SU in their last five on the road.
Buffalo will look to expose a Ravens secondary ranked dead last versus the pass. Home teams that are only favored by 2.5 points mean the teams are of equal strength, so we take Buffalo Bills getting the points in week four parlay play number two.
Parlay Leg #3: Carolina Panthers +4.5
The final leg of our parlay is the Carolina Panthers +4.5 versus the Cincinnati Bengals. The Panthers are a definite sharp play this week as the Bengals are getting 67% of the spread bets and 69% of the money bets. However, the line dropped off the opening 5 down to 4.5. The Panthers were a different team with competent quarterback play. Cincinnati comes in off the loss and is playing not only on short rest but also on the road. Cincinnati is 4-6 ATS last 10 and away games and 1-3-1 last five as a favorite. Give us the Panthers +4.5 in the final leg of this week’s parlay plays.
Total Parlay Odds:
Odds Via FanDuel Sportsbook ATS parlay +478 /Moneyline parlay +629
*odds subject to change*
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