Oh, NFL, you absolute beauty! Just when you thought the offseason action was getting stale… BOOM! The Buffalo Bills traded megastar WR Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans in what can be defined as a heavyweight move from the Dallas team as they want to get the best out of QB CJ Stroud’s rookie contract.
From a betting perspective, Vegas panicked! Line movement is usually a thing after every big move, but this was a QB-caliber line movement. These are the Texans’ betting lines after Diggs’s blockbuster move!
AFC South
After a highly productive, yet controversial stint at the Buffalo Bills, Stefon Diggs will surely become CJ Stroud’s WR1 this season. A prolific route runner with safe hands, Diggs can be an absolute machine and can open spaces for Nico Collins and Tank Dell, another two big-time receivers in the Texans’ depth chart. But how do the odds to win the AFC South react to this signing?
Previously, the Texans’ betting lines were +150 to win the division for the second time in a row. Now, DraftKings has them at +115, meaning the odds move 45 cents. This is massive when you consider it’s only a four-team market (only the AFC South teams).
Current Odds to Win AFC South (subject to changes)
| Houston Texans | +115 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +240 |
| Indianapolis Colts | +330 |
| Tennessee Titans | +1000 |
You can still get the Texans at plus money, something you should really hammer since the market will probably keep adjusting once more money starts to come in.
AFC Championship Odds
The AFC is loaded with talented QBs and stacked teams. So, it’s a bit of a tougher spot. Now, you don’t compete against three teams, it’s against 15. While the NFC has less talented but intriguing teams or rebuilding franchises, the AFC leaves no margin for error. The odds still moved quite heavily for the Texans’ betting lines. Prior to Diggs’ announcement, DraftKings had them at +1200 to win the AFC Championship. Now, they are at +850. That’s a huge movement for a non-QB player to cause.
Current Odds to Win AFC Championship (subject to changes)
| Kansas City Chiefs +300 | Baltimore Ravens +475 |
| Cincinnati Bengals +700 | Buffalo Bills +700 |
| Houston Texans +850 | New York Jets +1100 |
| Miami Dolphins +1100 | Los Angeles Chargers +1700 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars +2000 | Cleveland Browns +2200 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers +2800 | Indiapanolis Colts +3500 |
| Las Vegas Raiders +6000 | Tennessee Titans +7000 |
| Denver Broncos +8000 | New England Patriots +9000 |
They effectively leapfrogged the Miami Dolphins and the New York Jets on the odds. However, it’s lowkey insane to see that the Buffalo Bills are still above the Texans. Buffalo’s roster is not looking good right now, while the Texans have been stellar this offseason.
And, at this point, is a weapon-limited Josh Allen much better than a weapon-filled CJ Stroud? Don’t think so. -Considering everything, the Texans might be a great sleeper pick in this market and Stroud might be in the running for MVP next season.
Super Bowl LIX Odds
This has been the market that has moved the most since Diggs’ signing. At first, it was reported that the Texans’ betting lines moved.
The Texans' Super Bowl odds BEFORE trading for Stefon Diggs: +2500
The Texans' Super Bowl odds AFTER trading for Stefon Diggs: +2000 pic.twitter.com/lfzX06tH5b
— DraftKings Sportsbook (@DKSportsbook) April 3, 2024
However, you can sense how the market still jumped at it, so further adjustments have been made all across the sportsbooks. The Texans have gone from +2500 to +1600 at the time of writing. Just for context, Aaron Rodgers’ arrival to the Jets propelled them a bit more than 2000 cents on their odds. We’re talking about a QB who was seen as 5-star caliber and had won two MVPs in the last three seasons prior to the move. Diggs is a wide receiver who comes off his worst season in Buffalo and has moved almost half of that.
Top 10 Odds to Win Super Bowl LIX (subject to change):
| Kansas City Chiefs +550 | San Francisco 49ers +600 |
| Baltimore Ravens +900 | Detroit Lions +1200 |
| Buffalo Bills +1200 | Cincinnati Bengals +1300 |
| Houston Texans +1600 | Philadelphia Eagles +1700 |
| Dallas Cowboys +1700 | Green Bay Packers +1900 |
Before the trade, Houston was 14th in the odds to win the Lombardi Trophy. Now, they are 7th and arguably one of the best value plays in the whole list. All of those teams have questions. Chiefs are still looking for a WR1 and Travis Kelce is not getting any younger, plus can you really three-peat?
The Niners have QB questions despite what Brock Purdy has shown. The Ravens have no playoff success and Lamar Jackson has yet to prove his style is Super Bowl-winning material. The Lions got close but still have some doubts in their secondary. The Bills are actually backtracking. The Bengals will lose Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, so their receiving core is harmed, plus the TEXANS took their starting RB, Joe Mixon. The Texans have actually one of the most complete rosters in the NFL.
Should You Act on These Texans’ Betting Lines?
Call me a madman, but the Texans’ betting lines in these markets are well worth a sprinkle (at least) and if you don’t jump on it now, the prices are just going to keep drowning.
About the Author
Bruno is a sports fanatic. Pick a sport, and he’ll enjoy debating or reminiscing about it for hours! From football to combat sports and literally everything in between, he’s your sports pal! You can follow Bruno on X.com @_BrunoMilano to enjoy all of his great content. Remember to subscribe to our YouTube channel, where we do lots of shows daily to keep you entertained.
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