The Denver Nuggets host the Utah Jazz on Friday Night for a probable lopsided affair. The 17.5-point spread proves Utah will fight uphill in the Mile High even to keep this close. Most of the Nuggets are donning a probable tag, with Jamal Murray being the only player in question. The books have lines set as he is in, so we will follow suit. The Jazz are without John Collins and Jordan Clarkson, and Lauri Markkanen is questionable after missing five straight. Let’s break it down.
Utah Jazz v. Denver Nuggets Odds
| Team | Spread | Total | Money Line |
| Utah Jazz | +17.5 (-105) | Over 240.5 (+1100) | +2500 |
| Denver Nuggets | -17.5 (-115) | Under 240.5 (-2500) | -1200 |
| **Odds Subject to Change** | |||
Utah Jazz vs. Denver Nuggets Match Details
- Fixture: Denver Nuggets vs. Utah Jazz
- Date and Time: March 28th, 2025 8:10 pm
- Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
Key Stats
Utah Jazz
It’s simple: the Utah Jazz’s primary focus should be the Cooper Flagg lottery to land the number one overall pick. There is little reason to try to win, as they are dead last in the Western Conference. Of their previous twelve games as double-digit dogs, they have covered the spread in only three of those (25%). Keeping it close against a solid team fighting for seeding will be hard.
Denver Nuggets
It is impossible to ignore that the Nuggets are on fire offensively. The Denver team total is currently set at 129.5, which is no easy hurdle to jump. The Nuggets have scored over 129.5 points only once over the past 10 games—and ironically, it was against the best team in the Western Conference on March 10th. The main reason for this effort was to catch up with Oklahoma City for the one seed after scoring only 103 in the previous game vs the Thunder.
The Utah Jazz are not that. They are no threat as the 29th-ranked team defense (out of 30). The Nuggets do need to win games to keep strong seeding. They are two games out of second place and two out of fifth. They need to win tonight’s matchup so that effort will ensue.
The interesting trend is that the Nuggets struggle to cover the spread as double-digit favorites. This NBA season, the Nuggets have only covered the spread in four out of 11 games as double-digit favorites (36%). While that is not good, the Jazz are even worse at covering as double-digit dogs.
Nikola Jokic has been rebounding at a much higher rate over the last 10 games. He’s averaged 12.7 rebounds this season but spiked his glass cleaning up to 13.9 rebounds in that span. With + plus money at some books of over 11.5 rebounds, this is a spot to target as this is the type of game he could hit his over before he gets some rest in the third quarter. With a blowout looming, he needs to get there early. Keep that in mind when setting a bet amount.
Practical Predictions
With these spread trends, seeding implications, and statistics, the Nuggets should go nuclear on the Utah Jazz in the Mile High tonight. I see the Nuggets ramping Nikola Jokic up after only one game back from a five-game absence. What better way to get the reigning MVP some confidence than with easy rebounds?
Final Pick
- Over 240.5
- Nuggets -17.5
- Nikola Jokic Over 11.5 Rebounds
Practical Predictions is 3-0 after sweeping all three bets from Thursday night’s Cavaliers/Spurs game. See those bets here.
