North Carolina Tar Heels vs. San Diego State Aztecs | First Four NCAA Tournament 2025

The NCAA Tournament kicks off with a battle for the 11th seed in the South Region as the North Carolina Tar Heels (22-13) are set to face off against the San Diego State Aztecs (21-9) on March 18th at 9:10 PM ET at UD Arena in the First Four of the NCAA Tournament. The winner of this game will take on the Ole Miss Rebels on Saturday in the Round of 64.

We will see that the Tar Heels are on a two-game winning streak as they are coming off a 74-71 neutral site loss on Friday against the Duke Blue Devils in the ACC Tournament Semifinals. The Aztecs are coming off Thursday’s 62-52 neutral site loss against the Boise State Broncos in the Mountain West Tournament Quarterfinals.

North Carolina Tar Heels vs. San Diego State Aztecs Odds

North Carolina Tar Heels vs. San Diego State Aztecs Match Details

• Fixture: North Carolina Tar Heels vs. San Diego State Aztecs
• Date and Time: Tuesday, March 18, 2025 at 9:10 PM ET
• Location: UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio

Key Stats

North Carolina Tar Heels

The North Carolina Tar Heels are entering the NCAA Tournament with a 22-13 record, with the team winning two of their previous three games. They are coming off a 74-71 neutral site loss against the Duke Blue Devils as they were held to shooting just 17.6% from the 3-point line. 

Offensively, the Tar Heels are averaging 80.8 points per game. The efficiency shows the team has a field goal percentage of 47.6 and a 3-point percentage of 35.3. At the free-throw line, they maintain a 73.7% success rate. They are cleaning the glass at an incredible level with the team being 81st in college basketball with a 52.1 total rebounding rate. This offensive depth is led by senior guard RJ Davis and his 17.0 points while having a shooting split of 40.9/34.5/88.5.

Defensively, North Carolina has been conceding 75.0 points per game. The defense has also displayed a field goal percentage allowed of 43.2 and also has a 3-point percentage of 33.5. 

San Diego State Aztecs

The San Diego State Aztecs, entering this game with a 22-9 record, are looking to improve quickly after losing two of their last three games. The most recent performances, including a 62-52 neutral site loss against the Boise State Broncos,  showed the team struggling on the glass as they were outrebounded 40-28. 

On offense, San Diego State is scoring 70.9 points per game. Shooting accuracy stands at 44.4% from the field and 33.5% from the 3-point line, with a free-throw percentage of 66.6. The program is rebounding at a great clip as they are ranked 191st with a 49.9 total rebounding percentage. 

Defensively, the Aztecs have been allowing 64.1 points per game with opponents shooting 38.1% from the field and 30.4% from beyond the arc. 

Prediction

The First Four games are always interesting but the San Diego State Aztecs should have the advantage here. Many people believe UNC should have missed the NCAA Tournament completely and the only reason they made it was because their athletic director is part of the NCAA Selection Committee. However, San Diego State has one of the best defenses in college basketball and should display that by slowing the pace of this game down.

Final Pick

San Diego State Aztecs ML (+165)