Though not for a championship, the UFC 302 co-main event will be a five-round affair featuring former champion Sean Strickland and fan-favorite contender Paulo Costa. Both fighters will be making their second appearances in 2024 after competitive losses in pay-per-view events earlier in the year.
Strickland will be returning for the first time since losing his title at UFC 297 in a split-decision loss to Dricus du Plessis. The 33-year-old campaigned for a rematch due to the competitive scorecards but will instead look to bounce back against Costa.
In his first fight since 2022, Costa also lost a close decision to Robert Whittaker at UFC 298. The loss was his third in his last four appearances, dating back to 2020. Should Costa make it to fight night on June 1, it will be his quickest turnaround between fights since 2017.
Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa Odds and Fight Details
View the money line, point spread, and round total for Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa according to DraftKings Sportsbook below:
| Point Spread | Round Total | Moneyline | |
| Sean Strickland | -5.5 (-140) | O 4.5 (+105) | -225 |
| Paulo Costa | +5.5 (+105) | U 4.5 (-135) | +185 |
| *Odds subject to change* | |||
Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa Background
Everything on paper points to this being a fight for Strickland. Not only is he the no. 1 contender in the UFC rankings and 4-1 in his last five, but Costa has historically struggled with volume strikers.
However, the motivation and aura around Costa feel different in 2024. Not only is this his first time fighting twice in a single year since 2017, but Costa looked significantly improved in his last outing against Robert Whittaker, having consistent success with his pressure and power against a notoriously sound defensive striker.
Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa Breakdown
Costa may be 1-3 since 2020 but other than his loss to Israel Adesanya, he has a unique ability to shine in moments. He is not the consistent pressure striker that Strickland is, but he has only been truly dominated once in his career.
Costa has just been routinely hampered by opponents who have been able to withstand his power through those big moments. Strickland is not “chinny” per se but has never absorbed the type of punishment Costa is known to deal with.
Strickland has won his fair share of five-round fights but his unique style is not kind to the judges’ eyes. He has run away with several fights, including the win over Adesanya, but Costa has never been one to wilt with deceptively solid cardio. Of Strickland’s last five decision wins, three have ended in a split decision, two resulting in losses.
Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa: Best Bet
Costa has not won by knockout since 2017, but the threat of finishing on his end is always present. Conversely, he has only finished himself once through 17 professional fights. His defense is not the most technical, but his durability is nearly impenetrable.
Strickland, while possessing the ability to finish fights, has seldom done so in the UFC. In his 21 UFC fights, Strickland has five wins inside the distance. Barring an injury, he will not finish Costa.
With a 5.5-point spread, we don’t need Costa to win outright. He only needs to win two rounds to cover five rounds, a task he managed to handle in his only 25-minute fight to date. The value is sensational plus money.
Best bet: Paulo Costa +5.5 (+105)
About the Author
Jaren Kawada is a freelance sports writer from Indianapolis, Indiana with a strong passion for MMA and sports betting. Kawada has also written for Sportskeeda MMA, FanSided MMA, and BetSided as a combat sports analyst. Follow on X/Twitter at @jarenkawada1.
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