It might seem easy to identify overvalued players after a season where unexpected names like Raheem Mostert and Kyren Williams finished in the top six for running backs. But that’s exactly my goal today with this fantasy football advice. However, if you’re confident in a player, go ahead and draft them. Fantasy football is meant to be enjoyable, and maybe your pick will be the next big surprise. Nevertheless, here are six running backs that I believe are being overvalued in fantasy drafts this year. Consider avoiding these players.
Travis Etienne Jr. (RB – JAX) | Half-PPR ADP: RB8, 18 Overall
The Jacksonville Jaguars had high hopes for a dynamic duo when they drafted Tank Bigsby in 2023 to complement Travis Etienne. While Bigsby didn’t meet expectations in his rookie year, the team remains committed to increasing his role, which could reduce Etienne’s workload. Last season, Etienne finished as the RB3 overall in half-PPR, making his RB8 draft position this year seem reasonable at first glance. However, much of his success was due to his high volume, as he accounted for nearly 76% of the team’s running back opportunities. Despite this, his efficiency metrics weren’t impressive, ranking 55th in true yards per carry and 25th in fantasy points per opportunity. The Jaguars are likely to focus more on Trevor Lawrence’s development this season, which could further limit Etienne’s opportunities. Drafting him at RB8 feels more like betting on his ceiling rather than his likely outcome.
Rachaad White (RB – TB) | Half-PPR ADP: RB13, 34 Overall
I’ve been critical of Rachaad White, and for good reason—he hasn’t proven to be a very effective NFL running back. Last season, he ranked 74th among running backs with a Pro Football Focus rushing grade of 66.7, and his efficiency metrics were similarly underwhelming. Despite facing the highest percentage of light fronts in the league, White relied heavily on volume rather than skill. While volume is important in fantasy football, White’s inefficiency raises concerns. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers may eventually look to other options like Ke’Shawn Vaughn or Bucky Irving, which could further diminish White’s value. If you’re considering White, it’s advisable to look into other fantasy football advice that may offer better alternatives.
David Montgomery (RB – DET) | Half-PPR ADP: RB21, 61 Overall
David Montgomery’s ADP of RB21 seems fair, but his ceiling might be lower than expected. The Detroit Lions’ offense was highly efficient last season, scoring 3.4 touchdowns per game. However, this level of production is unlikely to be sustained, leading to potential regression in Montgomery’s touchdown total. With rookie Jahmyr Gibbs emerging as a potential star, Montgomery’s role, especially in goal-line situations, could diminish as the season progresses. While he might still be an RB2, his upside seems limited compared to others being drafted around him.
D’Andre Swift (RB – CHI) | Half-PPR ADP: RB22, 64 Overall
D’Andre Swift is a player with big-play potential, but he has struggled with consistency and durability throughout his career. The Chicago Bears have a deep backfield, and new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron has a history of using multiple running backs. Given Swift’s injury history and the competition from Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson, it’s hard to trust him as a reliable option. This uncertainty makes him a risky pick in the middle rounds.
Zamir White (RB – LV) | Half-PPR ADP: RB23, 69 Overall
The Las Vegas Raiders surprised many by not making significant changes to their backfield, effectively handing the reins to Zamir White. However, White’s past performances haven’t inspired much confidence. He ranked 62nd in fantasy points per opportunity and 32nd in yards per touch last season. With the Raiders’ offense likely to struggle, it’s hard to see White as a viable fantasy option. Other running backs in this range offer more upside and should be considered instead.
Trey Benson (RB – ARI) | Half-PPR ADP: RB36, 104 Overall
Trey Benson is an intriguing rookie, but he might not be ready to make an impact this season. The Arizona Cardinals appear committed to James Conner, who is coming off his best season as a pro. Benson could serve as a handcuff to Conner, but with Michael Carter also in the mix, Benson’s role is uncertain. While Benson has long-term potential, he might be a year away from being a fantasy-relevant player. Consider targeting other players in this range who have a clearer path to playing time.
