Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers Best Bets – March 29th, 2025

On Saturday night, the Indiana Pacers face the NBA’s most formidable team, the Oklahoma City Thunder. With a healthy 239.5 OU, these top-paced teams should deliver an offensive invasion in a matchup with seeding implications for both. The only injuries of note are Aaron Wiggins (OKC, F) and Benedict Mathurin (IND, F), so viewers and arena goers alike should get their money’s worth.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers Best Bets Odds

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers Match Details

• Fixture: OKC Thunder vs Indiana Pacers 
• Date and Time: Saturday March 29th, 2025 8:10 pm ET 
• Location: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK 

Key Stats

Indiana Pacers

Pace: 9th
Defensive Rating: 15th
The Pacers are 8 – 2 in their last 10 games and sit fourth in the Eastern Conference standings. They are only three games behind the Knicks for third but have no chance at the one or two seed. Three teams are within three games of them, so maintaining positioning is a priority.

The last time they were a double-digit dog, they won the game outright and are 3 of 4 covering in those games. The Pacers hosted the Thunder in December and only lost by six at +5. They must push the pace to create extra possession because the Thunder are a defensive nightmare.

There are no clear trends in their overs/unders, which have been precisely 50/50 in the last ten games.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Pace: 10th
Defensive Rating: 1st
The Thunder can be motivated by two objectives: staying in first place with momentum and winning 70 games in the regular season. In 24′, they were the one seed and began resting players late in the regular season. This lack of playing time proved consequential, as the Mavericks gave them an early exit in the conference Semifinals. I doubt they make that mistake twice.

The minor trend that sticks out is the Thunder have covered the spread as 10+ point favorites in 6 of the last 10 games, but none of those teams ranked inside the top 15. They’ve struggled to cover against good teams, and the Pacers rank as the 12th-best team in the NBA.

Three things are certain in this life: death, taxes, and SGA scoring 30 points. With 35 games over 30 points this season, this could be 36. His current prop of 33.5 seems frightening at first glance, but he should play his full allotment of minutes with a game spread I’m projecting to be close, even if our scoring lean is to the under. Over the last ten games, he’s averaging 35.2 points, up from his season average of 32.7. Our model predicts that he will clear this mark 58.87% of the time. Anything over 55% is a green light for me.

Prediction

This game is vital to both teams, so I expect solid defense from each side. Thanks to their defensive prowess, our model predicts an OU of 233—well below the current Vegas line of 237.5. This game will be closer than the spread suggests, and SGA will continue to make his case for MVP by racking up points.

Best Bets 

• Pacers +10.5 (-115)
• Under 237 (-110)
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 33.5 points (-112) 

2025 NBA Betting Record 5 – 1.