The No. 21 SMU Mustangs (5-1) are set to face off against the Stanford Cardinal (2-4) in a Week 8 ACC clash on October 19, 2024, at Stanford Stadium. The Mustangs come into the game on a roll, following a 34-27 victory over Louisville, while Stanford is looking to rebound from a crushing 49-7 loss to Notre Dame.
Betting Odds and Trends
Point Spread: SMU -14.5
Moneyline: SMU (-671), Stanford (+471)
Total: 53.5 points
Betting Splits:
SMU: The Mustangs have gone 3-2 against the spread (ATS) this season but are winless (0-1) as favorites of 14.5 points or more. They have hit the over in three of their five games.
Stanford: The Cardinal have struggled both in terms of record and against the spread. They are 2-3 ATS this season and 0-2 when underdogs of 14.5 points or more. Only two of their six games have gone over the total.
SMU Mustangs Breakdown
Oct. 5, 2024
The Mustangs are now standing at No. 21 and have had a good season with a 5-1 record. Quarterback Kevin Jennings has been one of the best players on the field, and in their latest win against Louisville, he threw for 281 yards on 21 of 27 attempts while also rushing for 113 yards and scoring a touchdown. Jennings has completed 1,014 yards with six touchdowns and one interception this season and has also rushed for 262 yards and two touchdowns.
Brashard Smith has led the Mustangs’ rushing game with 558 yards and seven touchdowns while averaging 6 yards per carry. The receiving corps is topped by RJ Maryland who has 22 catches for 304 yards and three touchdowns.
Offesnively, SMU is 13th in the country, averaging 40.8 points per game. It has been a very versatile team, both in the air and on the ground, with a balanced offense that has put pressure on the opponents’ backline. Its rushing attack is 24th in the league, gaining 213.3 yards per game.
On the defensive end, SMU is allowing 22.3 points per game which makes it 38th in the country. They’ve been particularly good against the run, allowing just 98.5 rushing yards per game, which is 19th in the nation.
Key Players to Watch:
Kevin Jennings: 1,014 passing yards, 262 rushing yards, 8 total TDs
Brashard Smith: 558 rushing yards, 7 TDs
RJ Maryland: 22 receptions, 304 yards, 3 TDs
Kobe Wilson: 41 tackles, 2 INTs, 2 pass deflections
Stanford Cardinal Breakdown
Stanford has had a difficult year this year and is entering this game with a record of 2-4. They have been beaten in their last three games, and were thrashed 49-7 by Notre Dame in their last game. Ashton Daniels has been a bit of a Wildcat enigma this season with 707 passing yards, five touchdowns, and six interceptions. He’s also gained 294 rushing yards but has not found the end zone on the ground once.
Stanford’s offense has been poor and is averaging 20.3 points per game which is 81st in the country. The passing game is one of the worst in the country at 116th with only 165.8 passing yards per game, while the rushing game is only slightly better at 148.7 rushing yards per game.
On the defensive side Stanford has given away an average of 30.8 points per game. Their only notable positive has been their run defense that ranks 36th in the country and allows 113.2 rushing yards per game. But their passing defense has been subpar with 266.7 yards allowed per game and the opposing passers completing 65% of their passes.
Key Players to Watch:
Ashton Daniels: 707 passing yards, 5 TDs, 6 INTs
Chris Davis Jr.: 233 rushing yards
Elic Ayomanor: 333 receiving yards, 3 TDs
Collin Wright: 2 INTs, 2 pass deflections
Keys to the Game
1. SMU’s Offensive Firepower: Kevin Jennings’ dual-threat ability will be critical in this matchup. He has been efficient in both the passing and running game, and Stanford’s vulnerable secondary will have a hard time containing SMU’s dynamic attack.
2. Stanford’s Offensive Struggles: Stanford’s offense has been stagnant this season, particularly in the passing game. If the Cardinal can’t establish the run early, they’ll likely struggle to keep up with SMU’s high-powered offense.
3. Mustangs’ Defensive Prowess: SMU’s run defense has been a strong point, and if they can limit Stanford’s ground game, it will force Ashton Daniels to beat them through the air—something he has struggled to do all season.
Betting Prediction and Pick
Given SMU’s strong form and Stanford’s struggles on both sides of the ball, this game seems poised for a comfortable SMU win. The Mustangs have averaged 40.8 points per game, while Stanford’s offense has struggled to put points on the board. SMU’s balanced offensive attack, combined with their stout defense, should prove too much for the Cardinal to handle.
Prediction: SMU 35, Stanford 17.
Expect SMU to cover the -14.5-point spread, and for the total to go under the 53.5-point mark. SMU’s superior talent on offense and defense will likely result in a decisive victory for the Mustangs.
Conclusion
With a strong case for being one of the best teams in the country going into Week 8 of the ACC, the No. 21 SMU Mustangs are heavy favorites to defeat Stanford this weekend. SMU has all the pieces to blow past a Stanford team that has been unable to find any offensive momentum this season with a balanced offense led by Kevin Jennings and a defense that can shut down the run. With Stanford being unable to keep pace, the total should stay under and SMU to win big and cover the spread.
