The Pittsburgh Pirates bring the latest version of the Paul Skenes show to Minute Maid Park to play the Houston Astros in the opening game of a three-game interleague set. The Astros took two of three from the Los Angeles Dodgers over the weekend, while the Pirates dropped two of three on the road to the Arizona Diamondbacks.
On paper, this is a classic example of what happens when an irresistible offensive force (i.e., Houston) meets an unmovable pitching object (Skenes). Can the rookie phenom hold down the Astros and add to his growing legend?
Houston will send rookie reliever Jake Bloss to counter Skenes, and given that Bloss comes in with a 6.94 ERA, the pitching matchup looks like a total mismatch. Let’s take a closer look to see if the preferred bet here is as obvious as it looks.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Odds
| Team | Spread | Total | MoneyLine |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | -1.5
(+125) |
O 7.5
(-105) |
-135 |
| Houston Astros | +1.5
(-145) |
U 7.5
(-115) |
+115 |
| **ESPN BET, Odds Subject to Change** | |||
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Match Details
- Fixture: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros
- Date and Time: July 29, 2024 @8:10 EST
- Location: Minute Maid Park, Houston, Texas
Apex Tale of the Tape
| Pittsburgh Pirates | vs. | Houston Astros |
| 53-52 | Record | 55-50 |
| 4.15 | Runs/G | 4.69 |
| .232 | BA | .262 |
| .300 | OBP | .320 |
| .369 | SLG | .420 |
| .669 | OPS | .740 |
| 104 | HR | 121 |
| 58 | SB | 66 |
| 3.83 | ERA | 4.01 |
| 1.28 | WHIP | 1.30 |
| 26 | Saves | 25 |
| 0.987 | Fielding % | 0.988 |
Key Stats
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pittsburgh stats for this one are all about Paul Skenes. The lanky righty comes in having allowed just five earned runs in his last five starts after tossing a scoreless inning for the NL in the All-Star game. He went 8.1 innings in his last outing against the St, Louis Cardinals. Skenes’ inning count continues to grow, so it will be interesting to see how the Pirates manage that going forward.
Offensively, star shortstop Oneil Cruz has been the highlight. Cruz homered twice against the Diamondbacks over the weekend, so it will be interesting to see if the Astros decide to pitch around him. Catcher Joey Bart contributed a couple of clutch hits, so he’s another name to watch. The Pirates often struggle to generate offense and score runs beyond those two, so keep an eye on the rest of the supporting cast. It will help if left fielder Bryan Reynolds comes off of the Bereavement List, but that is not likely as of this writing.
Houston Astros
The Astros came to bash in the first two games against the Dodgers over the weekend, scoring 12 runs in a pair of victories before being shut down just two yesterday. The star of the offensive show was catcher Yainer Diaz, who batted .500 (6-for-12) in the series, including a homer and a triple.
The pitching part of the equation is where Houston gets shaky. Jake Bloss could easily struggle to hold his own, even against the problematic Pirates lineup, and it doesn’t take many runs to give Skenes the edge he needs. The Astros bullpen will be seriously challenged to follow the rookie after the staff as a whole gave up a dozen runs in the last two games.
Prediction
If you believe in Paul Skenes, this bet isn’t exactly rocket science. The Pirates should score enough runs for Skenes, and if Pittsburgh scores early things are going to get especially dicey for Houston. We’ll take the Pirates to win on the money line of -135, then sit back and watch the show to see how many Houston hitters Skenes can strike out.
Final Pick
Pittsburgh Pirates – Moneyline (-135)
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