Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Preview, Prediction and Odds | July 19, 2024

Nationals vs. Pirates

Pennsylvania will be divided when the Philadelphia Phillies and Pittsburgh Pirates open up the second half. This is the second series between the clubs after splitting four games in April.

Philadelphia will send Aaron Nola (11-4, 3.38 ERA) to the mound on Friday night. Pittsburgh will counter with veteran lefty Martin Perez (1-5, 5.15 ERA).

The Phillies enter the back half with MLB’s best record. The Pirates have new life as they seek a wild-card spot. Only one team can come out on top tonight. Who will it be?

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Odds

Team

Spread

Total

MoneyLine

Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+110) Over 8.0 (-118) -162
Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 (-130) Under 8.0 (-102) +136

**Odds Subject to Change**

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Match Details

  • Fixture: Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates
  • Date and Time: Friday, July 19, 2024 at 6:40 p.m. EST
  • Location: PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Apex Tale of the Tape

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
62-34 Record 48-48
4.97 Runs/G 4.19
.259 BA .231
.331 OBP .299
.424 SLG .370
.755 OPS .669
118 HR 99
99 SB 49
3.41 ERA 3.86
1.153 WHIP 1.276
26 Saves 25
.984 Fielding % .986

Key Stats

Philadelphia Phillies

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  • The Phillies have the best winning percentage in the league
  • Philadelphia’s offense is top-10 in runs per game (3rd), batting average (3rd), OBP (3rd), and slugging percentage (6th)
  • They’re also top-10 in stolen bases (4th), walk rate (4th), and home runs (6th)
  • Nola has pieced together five straight quality starts
  • Philly’s bullpen is second in FIP and second in WAR

Pittsburgh Pirates

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  • Pittsburgh went 6-1 to wrap up their first half
  • The Pirates have lost seven of Perez’s last eight starts
  • Perez has pitched 16.0 innings since returning from the IL, allowing 24 hits and 12 runs in that span
  • Pittsburgh’s relievers are third in HR/9, eighth in FIP, and 10th in WAR
  • That same group is 26th in ERA and 29th in LOB%
  • The Pirates are among MLB’s five worst teams in batting average, OBP, slugging percentage, and OPS
  • Only the Brewers have a higher stolen-base percentage than Pittsburgh

 

Prediction

Nola has gone five straight starts without allowing more than three runs. Against a Pirates team that’s 20th in scoring, he should be fine. Philadelphia’s lethal bullpen won’t have any issues either.

On the other side, Perez is in for a long night. The Phillies are one of MLB’s most potent lineups, and they improve against lefties. Pittsburgh’s bullpen is 26th in ERA, so they’ll also bleed runs if given the chance. Expect Philadelphia to win this game by multiple runs.

Final Pick

Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+110)

About the Author

André is a University of Connecticut graduate. He has been in sports journalism since December 2020. Follow Andre on Twitter at @TowerTalkSports. You can read and follow Andre’s betting picks at Winners and Whiners. He is also an NFL reporter for GiveMeSport.com.

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