Week 11 is here and we are back with our NCAA football parlay. To recap, we were 1-2 ATS with last week’s selections, bringing us to 13-18 ATS year with our NCAA selections. We were unlucky in the Penn State-Ohio State game, but if you checked back with our leans section you did very well, as we hit on four of six. Remember that the probability of cashing a three-team parlay is 6/1, so a realistic goal is for us to hit on two for the season.
In addition, we will play these weekly selections straight up and in a money-line parlay. Our weekly Parlay target games with a reverse line movement and those where Vegas books have a heavy liability on one team. In other words, the betting outcome that Vegas books need to profit on the day. The betting lines are those posted by the consensus at Vegas Insider and are subject to change.
Please continue to check our new bonus leans section that will be updated with additional plays the Vegas Sportsbooks need to profit on the day. With that being said here we go with our week 11 plays, follow or fade.
Parlay Leg #1: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +11
The opening leg of our week 11 parlay is the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +11 over the Miami Hurricanes. We spot our first reverse-line movement with the Hurricanes getting the majority of the money and the ticket count and opening line of 13 has dropped to 11. Ga Tech is 5-4-1 ATS in their last 10 games for +0.55 units. The Yellow Jackets are also 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 home games for +2.45 units. In addition, Miami is only 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus Ga Tech, we will follow the sharps and take the home underdog Yellow Jackets for parlay play number one.
Parlay Leg #2: South Florida Bulls +3.5 (Alternate Spread)
Parlay play number two takes us to the South Florida Bulls +3.5 versus the Navy Midshipman. We find another sharp line movement that we like to target. Again a majority of the money is coming in on Navy, and yet the line dropped a point and a half from the opening 4.5. South Florida has won two of its last three against the midshipmen and are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games.
Secondly, the Bulls are also 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games and an underdog. The Navy is no doubt having a terrific season but has lost two straight overall and ATS. The midshipman are 1-2 ATS in their last three and 5-5 ATS in the last 10 ten on the road. We will back the sharps again in our middle leg, buy the hook, and take the Bulls +3.5.
Parlay Leg #3: Purdue/Ohio State 1H over 29.5
The final leg of our parlay is a betting edge that we target. Ohio State is a big favorite with a high implied team total. The Buckeyes are a massive 38-point chalk versus Purdue this week. Ohio State comes in averaging 37.75 points per game, which pairs nicely with a Boilermaker’s defense allowing 36.88 points per game. With the Buckeyes expected to get out to a big first-half lead, we will back the first half over 29.5 in the anchor leg of our week 11 parlay.
Total Parlay Odds: ATS / Money Line
*Odds Via FanDuel Sports Book and Subject to Change*
Bonus Leans: Ole Miss, Washington
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