The NCAA football season is in the stretch run, with week 13 upon us and so we are back with our NCAA football parlay. Much better in week 11, going 2-1 ATS bringing us to 16-21 ATS overall with our NCAA selections. Our bonus leans did very well again, as we hit on four of our five selections. Remember that the probability of cashing a three-team parlay is 6/1, so a realistic goal is for us to hit between one to three during the college football season.
In addition, we will play these weekly selections straight up and in a money-line parlay, because in general parlays are not a profitable betting strategy. Our weekly parlays target games with reverse line movement, give you a betting edge, and those where Vegas books have a heavy liability. In other words, the betting outcome that Vegas books need to profit on the day. The betting lines are the consensus at Vegas Insider and are subject to change.
Please continue to check back to this article link or via social media to view the bonus leans section, which will be updated with additional sharp plays and the Vegas Sportsbook needs. With that being said, here we go with Week 13: follow or fade.
Parlay Leg #1:
Notre Dame/ Army over 44
Our first parlay play of week 13 will be the Notre Dame Fighting Irish-Army Black Knights over 44. We like Army to play well in this game, as we spotted a burner line here. Army is seeing 89% of the money and 67% of the tickets, dropping the line 1.5 points down to 14. The total has also climbed a point up to 44.5. The over is 5-4-1 in Army’s last 10 games overall and the Irish are 6-4 to the over in their last away and as a favorite. We are a bit leery of using Army ATS, so will use a betting edge active underdog system play, and wager on the over 44.
Parlay Leg #2: East Carolina/ North Texas over 72
In the middle leg of our parlay, we will go with another total play. We like the over 72 in the matchup between East Carolina and North Texas. Both the Pirates and Mean Green possess offenses scoring north of 30 points per game. The over for both teams is a combined 14-6 on the year and the game should be very competitive with just a three-point spread.
East Carolina games are 5-0 in the last five and 6-4 in the last 10 to the over. The Pirates have also gone over in their last three road games. North Texas brings a defense allowing 35.7 points per game and has gone over the total 8 of their last 10 overall. Give us over 72 in the middle leg of this week’s parlay.
Parlay Leg #3: Kentucky Wildcats +21.5 (Alternate Spread)
The anchor leg of this week’s parlay is the Kentucky Wildcats’ +21 over the 3rd-ranked Texas Longhorns. We see some early money in on the Wildcats as the opening line of 21 has dropped a half point to 20.5. Kentucky is 6-4 ATS this season, including converting against Ole Miss, Georgia and Tennessee.
Kentucky is battle-tested having faced some serious competition in the SEC so far this season. The Wildcats are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 and 6-4 ATS in their last 10 away games. Texas on the other side is 1-3-1 ATS in their last five overall, so we will buy a full point and play on Kentucky to round out the week 13 parlay.
Total Parlay Odds: ATS Parlay: +538 / ML Parlay: +3605
*Odds Via FanDuel Sportsbook and Subject to Change*
Bonus Leans: Army, Kansas, Northwestern
