Week 1 of the NFL football season has arrived and like NCAA we will feature a weekly three-team parlay. You can also play these same picks and parlay the money line. Our NFL Football Parlays will target sharps plays. Sharp plays are betting lines indicating reverse line movements, a line hold, or games where Vegas books have a heavy liability on one team. In other words, the betting outcome that Vegas books need to profit on the day. Remember that the probability of cashing a three-team parlay is 6/1, so a realistic goal is for us to hit on two or three for the season.
The betting lines are those posted at Vegas Insider and are subject to change. To be a profitable sports bettor, the odds are in your favor to stay away from public plays, usually the betting favorite.
Parlay Leg #1: Arizona Cardinals vs. Buffalo Bills over 48
Parlay leg number one will be Cardinals/Bills over the 48 total. Arizona is a sharp play where will lean on the active or live dog to drive us over the 48 total. We can count on the Bills scoring at home and hitting their implied team total of 27.5. The over is 4-1 in the Buffalo’s last 5 games as a home favorite. Arizona’s offense will be improved with a healthier Kyler Murray and the over is 6-4 in the Cardinal’s last 10 as a road dog.
Parlay Leg #2: Indianapolis Colts +3:
Parlay leg two will be the Indianapolis Colts +3 versus the Houston Texans. As of Wednesday, the Texans are getting 85% of the tickets and 92% of the money. The Texans are the biggest liability for the Vegas books in week one. The public is all over Houston driving the opening line from -1.5 to -3. Side with the books this week and play the Colts getting a field goal at home. Bonus, buy the hook, and get the Colts at 3.5.
Parlay Leg #3: Cleveland Browns -2.5
The final leg of our grouping will be the Cleveland Browns -2.5 versus the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas is almost always a public play, however, the sharps are on the Browns in week 1. Dallas is getting 53% of the tickets and 62% of the money and yet the line shifted from Dallas -1.5 to Cleveland -2.5. I am in the minority here but I think Deshaun Watson, if healthy, will have a bounce-back year!! You do not forget how to play quarterback with his acumen.
Total Odds:
Caesars Sportsbook: ATS parlay odds +597 / Money line Parlay odds +664
*Odds subject to change*
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