North Carolina Tar Heels vs Duke Blue Devils: IS UNC Favored By Too Many Points?

North Carolina Tar Heels

The third-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels (17-4, 9-1 ACC) face the seventh-ranked Duke Blue Devils (16-4, 7-2). This is the biggest college basketball game of the regular season, especially with both teams playing well. Regardless of recent close games, this one will always be a classic, must-watch!

While Duke overcame a hostile road environment, the North Carolina Tar Heels are coming off of an upset loss against Georgia Tech. Although, they have been something of a giant slayer, as they also beat the Blue Devils earlier in the year.

With everything to play for, a little more than just bragging rights are on the line today!

North Carolina Tar Heels vs Duke Blue Devils Betting Odds and Details

Team Spread Total MoneyLine
North Carolina Tar Heels -4,5
-115
O152
-110
-198
Duke Blue Devils +4.5
-105
U152
-110
+164
**Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook**
  • Fixture: Duke Blue Devils @ North Carolina Tar Heels
  • Date And Time: February 3, 2024 @ 6:30 p.m. EST
  • Location: Dean E. Smith Center, Chapel Hill, North Carolina

Key Stats

North Carolina Tar Heels (Averages)

Points: 82.6

Points Allowed: 69.2

Field Goal Efficiency: 28.3/62.7 for 45.1%

Three-Pont Efficiency: 7.6/21.6 for 35.2%

Free Throw Efficiency: 18.4/24.4 for 75.4%

Rebounds: 12.5 Offensive, 29.1 Defensive, 41.6 Combined

Assists: 14.0

Steals: 6.0

Blocks: 4.4

Turnovers: 10.7

Field Goal Efficiency Against: 24.7/62.1 for 39.8%

Three-Point Efficiency Against: 6.8/22.8 for 29.9%

Free Throw Efficiency Against: 13.0/17.5 for 74.2%

Rebounds Against: 9.4 Offensive, 24.8 Defensive, 34.2 Combined

North Carolina Tar Heels

Before their stunning loss at Georgia Tech, the North Carolina Tar Heels were one of the hottest teams in the nation. However, regardless of your record or previous games, any team will have their hands full against Duke. Yet UNC might be one of the better-equipped teams to face the Blue Devils. Despite some of their lapses, they can score the basketball!

Additionally, RJ Davis leads this team in scoring, he averages 21.5 a game. In his last five games, he has only scored less than 20 once, even then it was a respectable 16. While they are facing a strong roster, teams have been able to score on Duke. Despite the meaning of this game and talent, it will not be surprising if Davis can unload for another 25+ outing!

Duke Blue Devils (Averages)

Points: 81.0

Points Allowed: 67.2

Field Goal Efficiency: 28.4/58.9 for 48.2%

Three-Pont Efficiency: 8.4/21.6 for 38.7%

Free Throw Efficiency: 15.9/21.6 for 73.4%

Rebounds: 9.6 Offensive, 26.3 Defensive, 35.9 Combined

Assists: 16.0

Steals: 6.8

Blocks: 4.0

Turnovers: 9.4

Field Goal Efficiency Against: 24.6/56.8 for 43.3%

Three-Point Efficiency Against: 7.1/21.1 for 33.7%

Free Throw Efficiency Against: 11.0/15.8 for 69.8%

Rebounds Against: 8.2 Offensive, 23.5 Defensive, 31.7 Combined

Duke is riding a three-game winning streak. Although, they currently sit behind the North Carolina Tar Heels in the ACC standings, a win here would help to even things up. However, facing UNC in Chapel Hill is tough for anyone. Even though this Duke team is on a hot streak, facing their rival now isn’t exactly how they would have wanted to plan it.

Despite being underdogs, they have one X-Factor. Kyle Filipowski remains a threat, even leading the team in both points and rebounds. If he can go off, then Duke has a chance to pull off the road upset. Averaging 17.5 points per game is not too shabby, but he’ll probably need closer to 30 tonight for the Blue Devils.

Game Prediction

Even though the numbers slightly favor Duke, I still view the North Carolina Tar Heels as the better defensive team. Overall, UNC is more physical and will be able to win a gritty game if that’s how this ends up. Also, in a shootout, the Tar Heels simply have more explosive offensive options. Worst case, down the stretch, UNC has the slight free throw advantage, additionally, they get fouled more. Because of this, I see them winning a lower-than-expected game, but being able to pull away at home.

Final Pick

Under 152 and North Carolina Tar Heels -4.5

About the Author

Gabriel is a lifelong sports fan. Pick a sport, and he’ll enjoy talking about it with you! From football to soccer, combat sports, and volleyball!  For more great content, check us out on X @TotalApexSports. Remember to subscribe to our YouTube channel, where we do several shows daily. You can follow Gabriel on Twitter @BigTenGabriel to enjoy all of his great content. Make sure you follow us on NewsBreak as well.

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