Disappointing week 16 for us going just 1-2 ATS and missing on our parlay play. This brings our NFL seasonal record to 29-20 ATS and our bonus leans went 2-1. Remember, we will play these picks on a money line parlay, and straight-up because parlays are not a long-term profitable betting strategy. We tend to avoid public plays, which are traditionally the betting favorites.
Our weekly picks will target games seeing respected money and those where Vegas books have a heavy liability—in other words, the betting outcome that Vegas books need to profit on the day. The betting lines discussed are the consensus at Vegas Insider and are subject to change.
Please continue to check this article link or via social media to view the bonus leans section, which will be updated with additional sharp plays and the Vegas Sportsbook needs. Let’s get right to it with week 17: follow or fade.
Parlay Leg #1: Buffalo Bills -9 (Alternate Spread)
The opening leg of this week’s parlay will be the Buffalo Bills -9 versus the New York Jets. The Bills are seeing 71% of the tickets and 74% of the money bets, which has driven the line up to 10. We are not normally a fan of the betting favorite, but what led us to this play was the Sharps getting on Buffalo at -9. The Jets are just 5-10 ATS this season and have little to play for in this one.
Buffalo will be motivated to win this game to secure the #2 seed and are 7-3 ATS in their last 1o games. The Bills are also 7-3 ATS in their last ten away games. We will buy a full point down to get the betting edge and back the Bills for play number one.
Parlay Leg #2: Tennessee Titans +1.5 (Alternate Spread)
The middle leg of our parlay is the Tennessee Titans +1.5 versus the Jacksonville Jaguars. There are two reasons for this selection, the first being the revenge angle as the Jags defeated the Titans 10-6 back in week 14. The second is the presence of some sharp money that came in on the Titans moving the line three points.
Tennessee, which opened up as a four-point underdog, now sits at +1. The Titans may be only 2-13 ATS this season but they are a profitable 6-4 ATS in their last ten versus Jacksonville and 5-2-3 ATS in their last ten on the road versus the Jags. We will buy the hook and back the Titans +1.5 for play number two.
Parlay Leg #3: Minnesota Vikings -1 (Alternate Spread)
The anchor leg will be the Minnesota Vikings -1 against the Green Bay Packers. Both of these teams are playing for something so we do not have to worry about the motivational aspect. In this contest, we spotted our staple reverse line movement. The Packers opened up as a two-point favorite, seeing over 60% of the tickets and money bets, and yet the line has now moved to Minnesota at -1.5.
The Vikings are an outstanding 10-4-1 ATS this season and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 at home. We will again buy the half point to get the Vikings on the right number for play number three, to close out the week 17 parlay.
Total Parlay Odds: ATS +561 / ML +333
*Odds Via FanDuel Sportsbook and Subject to Change*
