As NFL Week 1 kicks off, making the right survivor pool picks is crucial for staying in the game. Here’s a breakdown of the top picks, a smart contrarian choice, and one key team to avoid, backed by stats, analysis, and some insider insights.
Top Survivor Picks for Week 1
Cincinnati Bengals
The Cincinnati Bengals are a strong and safe choice for Week 1. They’re the biggest favorites this week, with a spread of -10.5 points against the New England Patriots, who are projected to have the lowest win total of 4.5 for the 2024 season. Last season, the Bengals went 12-4 and boasted a 7-1 home record. Their offense, led by Joe Burrow, averaged 26.1 points per game, ranking 7th in the league. Even if Ja’Marr Chase doesn’t play due to his contract holdout, the Bengals’ high-powered offense should have no trouble overcoming a Patriots team that struggled mightily last year, ranking 26th in total offense.
The Seattle Seahawks are another top pick for Week 1. At the time of writing, FanDuel has them as a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under at 44.5 and a Seattle -255 moneyline. Heading into the 2024 season, fans of the Seahawks are excited about their team’s prospects. Seattle is implementing a new system on both sides of the ball, complemented by an abundance of young talent. The Seahawks also have the advantage of playing in front of their passionate home crowd, known as the “12s.”
This Week 1 matchup against the Denver Broncos is particularly intriguing. The Broncos, led by rookie quarterback Bo Nix, are hitting the road to face Seattle. Not only do these two storied franchises have a rich history, but this game also marks the first time the Seahawks have opened the season against a rookie quarterback. Seattle’s scrappy young defense, under first-year head coach Mike Macdonald, will be eager to capitalize on this.
The last time the Broncos came to Seattle was for the 2022 season opener when former Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson made his debut as a Bronco. The Seahawks, led by Wilson’s former backup, Geno Smith, played spoiler, defeating Denver 17-16. Both teams look quite different now, but you can bet Geno still has no plans to write back. If you’re looking for a bit of a gamble, taking Seattle to cover the spread (-115) and a DK Metcalf anytime touchdown (+145) in a Same Game Parlay (+271) could be worth considering. Just remember, I’m not offering gambling advice—just some food for thought!
Contrarian Pick
Cleveland Browns
If you’re looking for a contrarian pick in Week 1, the Cleveland Browns could be the team to watch. The Browns are facing the Dallas Cowboys, a team that might be in trouble early due to offensive line issues. Dallas is expected to start two rookies on the line, which could spell disaster against a Browns defense that ranked 5th in sacks last season with 45. Myles Garrett, who recorded 16 sacks in 2023, will be eager to exploit this mismatch.
While the Browns’ overall record was a disappointing 7-10 last season, they managed an 8-9 record against the spread, including a 4-4 mark at home. Cleveland went 3-4 straight up at home, showing they can be competitive, especially if their defense steps up.
On the other side, the Cowboys were 10-7 against the spread last season and posted a 5-4 record as road favorites. The OVER hit in 9 of their 17 games, indicating their games tend to be high-scoring. However, the Browns’ games saw the UNDER hit in 8 of their 17 matchups, suggesting a different dynamic at play.
Given these factors, the Browns could be a smart, albeit risky, pick for those willing to go against the grain in Week 1. The combination of Cleveland’s defensive strength and Dallas’s potential offensive line struggles makes this matchup one to watch closely.
Team to Avoid
Buffalo Bills
When considering the Buffalo Bills as a pick in Week 1, it’s essential to weigh both their recent betting trends and the broader context of the matchup. The Bills might seem like an appealing choice, especially given their strong 11 and 6 record last season, but they’re actually a team to avoid in Week 1. Despite being favored by 6 points, Buffalo faces an Arizona Cardinals team that could be more challenging than expected.
The Bills were 8-11 against the spread last season, with a 5-5 record as home favorites, indicating some inconsistency in covering the line. Additionally, the UNDER hit in 11 of their 19 games, suggesting that their matchups were often lower-scoring than anticipated. The Cardinals, meanwhile, were 9-8 against the spread last season, though they struggled as a road underdog with a 4-5 record. With Kyler Murray under center, Arizona went 3-5 straight up in 2023. However, the Cardinals have made significant improvements under new head coach Jonathan Gannon, who previously led a Philadelphia Eagles defense that ranked 2nd in yards allowed last season.
Moreover, the OVER hit in 10 of the Cardinals’ 17 games, indicating a tendency towards higher-scoring contests. Given these trends and the uncertainty surrounding the Bills’ early-season form, it might be wise to hold off on using Buffalo in your survivor pool this week, especially against a potentially tougher-than-expected opponent like Arizona.
By taking these stats and insights into account, you can make informed decisions for your Week 1 survivor pool picks, increasing your chances of advancing in the competition.
