Week 7 of the NFL football season is upon us and let’s get to this week’s three-team parlay. In addition, we play these picks on a money line parlay and bet straight up. Last week again we went 1-2 ATS and lost two of the selections in Tennessee and New York that could easily have covered. That brings our total to 8-10 ATS year to date, as we look to get over the hump in week 7.
Our NFL Football Parlays target sharps plays. Sharp plays are betting lines indicating reverse line movements or a line hold. We also identify games where the Vegas books have the most liability on a certain team. In other words, the betting outcome that Vegas books need to profit on the day. Remember that the probability of cashing a three-team parlay is 6/1, so a realistic goal is for us to hit on two or three for the season.
The betting lines and betting trends are the consensus posted at Vegas Insider and are subject to change. To be a profitable sports bettor, the odds are in your favor to stay away from public plays, usually the betting favorite. Here we go with our week 7 plays, follow or fade.
Parlay Leg #1: New York Giants +3.5 (Alternate Spread)
In the opening parlay leg for week 7, we will back the home underdog New York Giants +3 versus the Philadelphia Eagles. We spot an initial reverse line movement here as the Eagles are getting 85% of the spread and 78% of the money bets but the line dropped from an opening 3.5 down to 3. New York is a respectable 3-3 ATS this season and faces an Eagles team that has an average differential of -1.2 points per game. Philadelphia is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 overall and 4-6 ATS in their last 10 versus the Giants.
Parlay Leg #2: San Francisco 49ers -1.5
In the middle leg of the parlay, we are taking the San Francisco 49ers as a short favorite over the defending champion Chiefs. The 49ers had to be circling this game as a revenge spot against the team that knocked them off in the Super Bowl. The Vegas books are telling us a lot by making San Francisco a favorite over an undefeated Kansas City team. The 49ers are 2-1 ATS the last three overall and at home. The Chiefs have beaten the 49ers in four straight and will no doubt be a public play, but not this time as San Francisco gets revenge at home.
Parlay Leg #3: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5
In the final leg of our parlay, we will take the Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 over the Baltimore Ravens on Monday Night Football. We find another reverse line movement with the favored Ravens opening at -5 and now sitting at -3.5. All this despite Baltimore garnering 65% of the spread bets. Tampa sits at 4-2 ATS this season and 6-4 ATS in their last 10 overall. Primetime games are a great spot to fade the public favorite and so we back the Buccaneers in the final leg of our week 7 parlay.
Total Parlay Odds: ATS +404/ Money Line +1088
*Odds via Fan Duel Sportsbook and are subject to change*
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