Week 3 of the NFL football season is upon us and let’s get to this week’s three-team parlay. In addition, you can use these same plays on a money line parlay or bet them straight up. Last week we went 2-1 ATS and narrowly missed because the Giants did not have a placekicker. That brings our total to 4-2 ATS year to date.
Our NFL Football Parlays target sharps plays. Sharp plays are betting lines indicating reverse line movements or a line hold. We also identify games where the Vegas books have the most liability on a certain team. In other words, the betting outcome that Vegas books need to profit on the day. Remember that the probability of cashing a three-team parlay is 6/1, so a realistic goal is for us to hit on two or three for the season.
The betting lines discussed are the consensus posted at Vegas Insider and are subject to change. To be a profitable sports bettor, the odds are in your favor to stay away from public plays, usually the betting favorite.
Parlay Leg #1: Vikings +3 Alternate Spread
In the opening leg of our parlay, we are taking the Minnesota Vikings +3 versus the Houston Texans. We had the Vikings last week in our parlay and we go back to them in week three. Minnesota is 2-0 ATS to start the season and playing very well under Sam Darnold. The Vikings are a sharp play once again this week. The Texans are getting 64% of the spread bets but we are seeing resected money backing the Vikings. The line has dropped from the opening 3.5 down to 2.5, but we will buy the half point to get back on the right number.
Minnesota in away games is 6-1-3 ATS last 10 and 2-1-2 ATS last five. In addition, ATS the Vikings are 3-0 last three, 5-0 last five, and 6-3-1 last 10 versus the Texans.
Parlay Leg #2: Dallas +1.5
The middle leg of this week’s parlay is the Dallas Cowboys +1.5 versus the Baltimore Ravens. Baltimore got upset at home last week against the Raiders. The Ravens come into the game at 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS, and looking to avoid the dreaded 0-3 start. Dallas was upset at home by the Saints last week and showed zero life from the start.
The Ravens are a public play as they get 67% of the spread bets, which is a stay-away for us. The Cowboys are 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS in their last ten home games and Baltimore comes in 0-3 ATS in their previous three games. We are backing the home underdog Cowboys for parlay play number two.
Parlay Leg #3: Falcons +3.5
The final leg of the parlay is the Atlanta Falcons +3.5 versus the Kansas City Chiefs. We found another reverse-line movement with Kansas City getting 80% of the spread and 73% of the money bets, and yet the opening line of 4.5 dropped to 3.5. Atlanta comes in off a nice win Monday night at Philadelphia and Kirk Cousins played much better with a 117.2 QB rating. He was 20-29 for 241 and two scores and was sacked only once.
Kansas City still has strong ATS numbers in their last 10 games but they are only 4-5-1 ATS their last 10 as a favorite. Atlanta comes in 6-4 SU in their last 10 home games. We will follow the sharp money and back the home underdog Falcons +3.5 in the final parlay leg.
Total Parlay Odds:
Odds Via FanDuel Sportsbook ATS parlay +569 /Moneyline parlay +933
*odds subject to change*
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