Unfortunately, our four-week parlay streak ended last week as Arizona failed to cover but let’s start another one in week 15. We did still hit on two of three selections bringing our seasonal record to 26-17 ATS, However, we did miss on two of our three bonus lean plays. Remember, we always play these picks on a money line parlay and straight up. We tend to avoid public plays, which are traditionally the betting favorites.
In addition, we play these weekly selections in a money-line parlay and straight up because, in general, parlays are not a profitable betting strategy. Our weekly parlay targets games seeing respected money and those where Vegas books have a heavy liability—in other words, the betting outcome that Vegas books need to profit on the day. The betting lines discussed are the consensus at Vegas Insider and are subject to change.
Please continue to check this article link or via social media to view the bonus leans section, which will be updated with additional sharp plays and the Vegas Sportsbook needs. This week’s lines are very difficult but with that said, here we go with Week 15: follow or fade.
Parlay Leg #1: Houston Texans -2.5
Play number one of this week’s parlay is the Houston Texans -2.5 over the Miami Dolphins. A little out of character for us to side with a favorite but we like Houston here off a bye. We spotted a line hold here as Miami is getting 67% of the tickets and 65% of the money bets and the opening line has held steady. That indicates some respected money backing the Texans here. Houston is 5-4-1 ATS in the last ten overall and 5-3-2 ATS in the last ten at home versus the Dolphins. Miami is 2-8 ATS in their last ten as an underdog so give me the Texans -2.5 to lead off our week 15 parlay.
Parlay Leg #2: Carolina Panthers -2.5
We are sticking with another favorite, as play number two will be the Carolina Panthers -2.5 over the Dallas Cowboys. As far as covering the spread, no team is hotter than Carolina. The Panthers are not only playing much better football of late; they are a stellar 5-0 ATS in their last five overall. We also spotted some respected money on the Panthers. The Cowboys are getting 76% of the tickets and 72% of the money bets, and yet the line has moved in the Panther’s direction. Dallas is 4-9 ATS overall and 3-7 ATS in their last ten as an underdog.
Parlay Leg #3: Bills/Lions over 54 (Alternate Total)
Play number three to round out the week 15 parlay will be the Buffalo Bills-Detroit Lions over 54. This game features the highest total on the slate, and we are going to ride that with both Detriot and Buffalo featuring top-10 offenses. Buffalo has played to the over in four of their last five overall and has allowed over 24 points a game in that time frame.
On the other hand, the over is 6-3-1 in their last ten overall and 6-4 in their last ten at home. The only thing that worries us in this one is that the general betting public will be on the over as well, but we can not in good faith wager on the under here!
Total Parlay Odds: ATS +541 / ML +422
*Odds Via FanDuel Sportsbook and Subject to Change*
Bonus Leans: TBD Sunday morning
