BAM, we nailed our week 10 NFL parlay, so let’s stay hot and go for two straight in week 11. Remember, we also play these picks on a money line parlay and straight up. Last week’s sweep brings our record to 15-15 ATS and two of our three bonus leans also cashed. We tend to avoid public plays, which are traditionally the betting favorite.
Our weekly parlay targets games with a reverse line movement and those where Vegas books have a heavy liability on one team. In other words, the betting outcome that Vegas books need to profit on the day. The betting lines are those posted by the consensus at Vegas Insider and are subject to change.
The bonus leans section has been profitable as well, it will continue to be updated with plays the Vegas Sportsbooks needs to profit on the day. So be sure to keep checking back to the article link. Here we go with our week 11 plays, follow or fade.
Parlay Leg #1: Seattle Seahawks +7.5 (Alternate Spread)
Play number one, we go out west and take the Seattle Seahawks +7.5 over the San Francisco 49ers. This is a revenge spot for Seattle losing to the 49ers 36-24 back in week six. We find some respected money backing the Seahawks, as 70% of the money bets are on the 49ers, yet the opening line has dropped 2.5. Seattle is just 2-6-1 ATS this season and does not have standout numbers versus San Francisco, however, the sharp money has us backing them in week 11.
In addition, the 49ers are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 at home and 4-6 ATS in their last 10 as a favorite. We will buy back a full point to get the betting edge and take the Seahawks in the opening leg of our week 11 parlay.
Parlay Leg #2: Buffalo Bills -1.5
The middle leg of our parlay is the Buffalo Bills -1.5 over the Kansas City Chiefs. It tells us a lot that Vegas Books have made the Bills the favorite over an undefeated Chiefs team. In essence, this line does not make sense but that is why taking the Bills gives us a betting edge.
This is an exact scenario that we discussed in our wagering series. We also spotted that Bufalo opened up as -1 and has moved to -2 in some spots, despite only garnering 21% of the tickets and 20% of the money bets. The books have since stated that the public is hammering the Chiefs and will need the Bills to cover come Sunday afternoon. Buffalo is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five games, giving us the Buffalo Bills -1.5 over the Kansas City Chiefs for parlay play number two.
Parlay Leg #3: Los Angeles Chargers -1.5
The anchor leg of our parlay is the Los Angeles Chargers -1.5 versus the Cincinnati Bengals. This is the same scenario as the Bills-Chiefs game. This line in theory makes no sense that the Bengals would be a home underdog to the Chargers. Vegas Books said the early money came in the Bengals and they will most likely need a Chargers cover come Sunday evening.
We have also spotted a reverse line movement as the Bengals opened at -2 and it has since moved to Chargers -1.5. All this, despite the Bengals seeing 83% of the tickets and 98% of the money. Los Angeles is 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 games, including three straight. We will back the Chargers here to close out the week 11 parlay.
Total Parlay Odds: ATS +525 / ML +998
*Odds Via FanDuel Sportsbook and Subject to Change*
Bonus Leans: Pittsburgh/Denver
