The NFL Hall of Fame Game is played on August 1, which is the beginning of the football season and triggers a rush of betting activity. The Hall of Fame Game cannot be compared to the Super Bowl. but it is still popular among would-be bettors who want to start the football season with a win. The Chicago Bears are up against the Houston Texans this year. Historical data and trends are useful in the sense of helping one to make a better guess or to have a better understanding when placing a bet.
Some data can be accessed on the Internet that depicts the results of the Hall of Fame Games for the years between 2000 to 2023 with the betting lines and the totals. These games which are played in Canton, Ohio, usually on a neutral ground, have small favorite margins and low totals since players usually play only one offensive series.
Betting Trends and Observations
– Underdog Success: Last year’s upset by the Browns over the Jets in the 2023 Hall of Fame Game continued a trend where underdogs have a 5-4 SU and 6-2-1 ATS record since 2013. Previously, favorites had a 6-1-2 ATS run.
– AFC Dominance in Matchups: In recent AFC-NFC matchups, AFC teams have gone 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS, with the last NFC win against an AFC team being Minnesota’s 14-3 victory over Pittsburgh in 2015.
– Halftime Leads: Leading at halftime hasn’t guaranteed victory, with the leading team going 2-3-1 in the last six games. Depth, especially at the quarterback position, is crucial.
– Total Points Trends: Despite low totals, the Over has been the winning wager in the last two years, following a 7-2 Under record in the previous nine games.
– Line Movements: Since 2015, lines have moved towards the favorite six times, with those teams going 2-3-1 ATS. Overall, bettors following line moves have a poor 3-6-1 ATS record in the last 10 games. The total has moved towards the Over in 2024, from 31.5 to 32.5, suggesting a potential Under bet might be wise.
2024 Game Analysis
– Chicago Bears: The Bears are not very expressive concerning the number of minutes Caleb Williams is going to play. Their quarterback options are Williams, Tyson Bagent, Brett Rypien, and Austin Reed. Bagent who was starting four games last season had a TD-Int ratio of 3-6. Rypien does not have much of a starting background and Reed is a new player.
– Houston Texans: Coach DeMeco Ryans has a more experienced QB in Davis Mills, Case Keenum, and Tim Boyle who has compared to Chicago’s options have many starts.
Betting Recommendation
– Team Performance: Chicago has a good record in the preseason in the last three years with six wins and three losses in straight up and six wins, two losses, and one push against the spread while Houston has a slight edge with 7-2 SU and ATS.
– Quarterback Depth: The QB rotation in the Houston roster is a major strength.
– Line Analysis: Chicago is a two-point favorite in this year’s Hall of Fame Game, but Houston is well-matched and seems more prepared. My power ratings still give Houston the edge over Chicago, 20-19. 5, but this is with Stroud in the lineup.
Conclusion
Given the depth of Quarterback and the history that indicates that underdogs have a higher probability of winning in this situation, the Texans are a good underdog bet. Furthermore, taking into account the change in the total, one could consider that an under bet as more probable. Betting-wise, go with Houston for this Hall of Fame Game with a high possibility of a low-scoring game.
