Week 8 is upon us and we are back for our NCAA football parlay, to recap, we again were 1-2 ATS on last week’s selections. That brings us to a 10-12 record ATS year with our NCAA picks, let’s get on a roll this week and back to the profitable side. Remember that the probability of cashing a three-team parlay is 6/1, so a realistic goal is for us to hit on two or three for the season.
In addition, we will play these picks straight up and as a money-line parlay. This week our NCAA Football Parlay plays are targeting games with a reverse line movement or where Vegas books have a heavy liability on one team. In other words, the betting outcome that Vegas books need to profit on the day.
The betting lines are those posted by the consensus at Vegas Insider and are subject to change. To be a profitable sports bettor, the odds are in your favor to stay away from public plays, usually the betting favorite. Here we go with our week 8 plays, follow or fade.
Parlay Leg #1: Ohio Bobcats +3.5
The opening leg of this week’s parlay is the Ohio Bobcats +3.5 versus the Miami, Ohio RedHawks. We spot our first reverse line movement here, with the favored RedHawks getting 98% of the spread and 100% of the money bets, yet the line has dropped a full point off the opening 4.5. Ohio is 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 as an underdog. In addition, Miami, Ohio is 3-7 SU in their last 10 games against Ohio, we will side with the sharp bettors and play on the Ohio Bobcats.
Parlay Leg #2: Houston Cougars +7.5 (Alternate Spread)
We find our next reverse line movement and take the Houston Cougars +7.5 against the Kansas Jayhawks in the middle leg of our parlay. Kansas is getting 61% of the spread and 54% of the money bets and we see a two-point drop. The Cougars opened at +8.5 and it is now down to +6.5 even though a majority of wagers are on Kansas. Another classic sharp play here and we will fade a Kansas team that is 0-6 ATS this season.
Houston’s offense concerns us a bit but the Cougars are 3-2 ATS in the last five overall and 4-1 ATS in the last five road games. We will buy back a full point to get on the right number and take the Houston Cougars in the middle leg.
Parlay Leg #3: Colorado Buffaloes +3.5
In the final parlay leg, we will back the Colorado Buffaloes +3.5 versus the Arizona Wildcats. We have a reverse line movement on the money bets but a burner line on the spread bets. We just wrote about the burner line in part 4 of our wagering series, with Colorado getting 66% of the spread bets and the books adjusting the line down a point off the opening 4.
The Buffaloes are in a revenge spot here after losing last year at home to the Wildcats in a close 34-31 game. Colorado is a profitable 4-2 ATS this season and faces an Arizona team that is 1-5 ATS this season.
Total Parlay Odds: ATS +502 /Money line +1640
*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change*
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