The final week before the NCAA football postseason is announced and we are back with our week 15 football parlay. Week 14 was a down week, as we went 1-2 ATS bringing us to 19-24 ATS overall this season with our weekly NCAA picks. Our bonus lean recommendations did not do well, as it was a good week for chalk plays. Remember that the probability of cashing a three-team parlay is 6/1, so a realistic goal is for us to hit between one and three during the college football season.
In addition, we play these weekly selections straight up and in a money-line parlay, because in general parlays are not a profitable betting strategy. Our weekly parlays target games with reverse line movement, give you a betting edge, and those where Vegas books have a heavy liability. In other words, the betting outcome that Vegas books need to profit on the day. The betting lines are the consensus at Vegas Insider and are subject to change.
Please continue to check this article link or via social media to view the bonus leans section, which will be updated with additional sharp plays and the Vegas Sportsbook needs. That said, here we go with Week 15: follow or fade.
Parlay Leg #1: UNLV Rebels +4
The opening leg of our week 15 parlay is the UNLV Rebels +4 over the Boise St. Broncos. We are backing the Rebels in week 15 for two reasons: the first is the revenge angle. UNLV lost to Boise in the first meeting on October 25, 29-24. The second, and our usual staple, is the early sharp money on the Rebels. The initial line of 5.5 has already dropped down to 4 despite Boise seeing over 70% of the ticket and money bets.
UNLV is a respectable 7-5 ATS this season and a stellar 8-2 ATS in their last ten away games. The Rebels are also 7-3 ATS in their last ten games as an underdog. We will take UNLV to cover and potentially win outright in the MWC title game to get us started in Week 15.
Parlay Leg #2: Texas Longhorns -2.5
We have another revenge spot in the middle parlay leg, as we take the Texas Longhorns -2 over the Georgia Bulldogs. Georgia defeated Texas 30-15 back in week eight, and the Longhorns get another shot at the Bulldogs, only this time in the SEC championship game. We see an early reverse line movement here, with Georgia getting 62% of the tickets and 80% of the money bets, and yet the line moved in the other direction.
Texas opened at -1.5, and it now stands at -2.5. Georgia is just 3-9 ATS this season and 1-4 in the last five. The Vegas oddsmakers are also telling us plenty, making Texas the favorite despite losing by two scores to Georgia the first time around. The Longhorns get revenge and the SEC title in play number two.
Parlay Leg #3: Oregon Ducks -2.5 (Alternate Spread)
The final leg of this championship week parlay is the Oregon Ducks -2.5 over the Penn St. Nittany Lions. This selection has more to do with Penn St. and how coach James Franklin’s team fairs in a big spot. The Nittany Lions had one such game this season against Ohio St. in week 10 and lost 20-13 as a three-point dog. Franklin is 12-25 SU versus a top 25 opponent and 3-17 SU versus those ranked in the top ten. Coupled with that, Penn St. is just 3-7 ATS in their last ten games and an underdog. We expect that trend to continue and back Oregon to close out our championship week parlay.
Total Parlay Odds: ATS +514 / ML +575
*Odds Via FanDuel Sportsbook and Subject to Change*
Bonus Leans: TBD Friday and Saturday
