The quarterfinals of the NCAA football playoff have arrived and we are back with another parlay. Better late than never, as we finally hit on one of our college football parlays with our round-one sweep. That brings our season record to 23-26 ATS. In addition, we play these weekly selections straight up and in a money-line parlay because parlays are not a profitable betting strategy.
Our weekly parlays target games with reverse line movement, give you a betting edge, and those where Vegas books have a heavy liability. In other words, the betting outcome that Vegas books need to profit on the day. The betting lines are the consensus at Vegas Insider and are subject to change.
Please continue to check this article link or social media to view any updated plays we may like as we gather more data closer to kickoff, and as always, Follow or Fade.
Parlay Leg #1: Arizona State Sun Devils +12.5
The opening leg features the Arizona State Sun Devils +12.5 versus the Texas Longhorns. The Sun Devils are the biggest underdog in the quarterfinal round but are also a sharp play. Texas is getting 65% of the tickets and 67% of the money bets, yet the opening line has dropped a full point. As you know this reverse line movement is the top option we look for every week with our parlays.
The Sun Devils are 8-2 ATS in their last ten overall and 7-3 ATS in their last ten away games. On the other side, Texas is just 4-6 ATS in both their last 10 overall and on the road. The biggest dog is barking in this one, Arizona State +12.5 for play number one.
Parlay Leg #2: Ohio State Buckeyes -2
We will roll with the Ohio State Buckeyes -2 in the middle leg over the Oregon Ducks. Another reverse line movement was spotted here with Oregon netting 60% of the tickets and 54% of the money and yet the line has moved in Ohio State’s direction. The Buckeyes opened up at -1 and it is now at -2.
This is the exact type of scenario we talked about in our wagering series, where we spot a line that does not make betting sense. The books are telling us a lot making Ohio State the betting favorite, even though the Ducks are not only the top seed but beat Ohio State earlier this season. The Buckeyes will not only be looking to avenge their earlier one-point defeat to the Ducks, but they are 6-4 ATS in both their last 10 overall and as a favorite. Ohio State Buckeyes -2 for play number against an Oregon team that is 3-6-1 ATS in the last ten as an underdog.
Parlay Leg #3: Notre Dame +1.5 (Alternate Spread)
To close things out, we will play the Notre Dame Fighting Irish +1.5 versus the Georgia Bulldogs. We have a line-hold here with Georgia seeing well over 60% of both the money and tickets and yet the line has held steady at Georgia -1. That indicates some respected money on the Irish and of course, the injury to the Bulldog’s starting quarterback Carson Beck no doubt plays a factor. Notre Dame is 9-1 ATS in their last ten overall and 8-2 ATS in their last ten on the road. Play number three, we buy the half point and take the Irish +1.5 over a Georgia team just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games!
Total Parlay Odds: ATS +587 / ML +1423
Bonus Leans: TBD-Check back via social media on January 1st
*Odds Via FanDuel Sportsbook and Subject to Change*
