The NCAA football week 14 is upon us and so we are back with our NCAA football parlay. We did better in week 13, again going 2-1 ATS bringing us to 18-22 ATS overall this season with our weekly NCAA picks. North Texas had the ball at the East Carolina six in the final seconds but could not punch it in, preventing our parlay from cashing. Our bonus lean recommendations did not do as well, with just two of our seven selections winning. Remember that the probability of cashing a three-team parlay is 6/1, so a realistic goal is for us to hit between one and three during the college football season.
In addition, we will play these weekly selections straight up and in a money-line parlay, because in general parlays are not a profitable betting strategy. Our weekly parlays target games with reverse line movement, give you a betting edge, and those where Vegas books have a heavy liability. In other words, the betting outcome that Vegas books need to profit on the day. The betting lines are the consensus at Vegas Insider and are subject to change.
Please continue to check this article link or via social media to view the bonus leans section, which will be updated with additional sharp plays and the Vegas Sportsbook needs. That said, here we go with Week 14: follow or fade.
Parlay Leg #1: South Carolina Gamecocks +3.5 (Alternate Spread)
Play number one of this week’s parlay is the South Carolina Gamecocks +3.5 over the Clemson Tigers. You guessed it, we spotted sharp money for South Carolina. Clemson is seeing 53% of the tickets and yet the line has dropped two points off the opening 4.5. The Gamecocks are a stellar 8-3 ATS this season, including 4-1 as an underdog. On top of that, South Carolina is 4-1 ATS in their last five as an underdog and 5-0 ATS in their last five on the road. Give us the Gamecocks and we will buy back the line to 3.5 to get the betting edge.
Parlay Leg #2: Arkansas Razorbacks +3.5 (Alternate Spread)
Play number two of our week 14 parlay is the Arkansas Razorbacks +3.5 over the Missouri Tigers. We spotted a line hold with Missouri seeing 57% of the tickets and 83% of the money bets, and yet there has been no line movement. The opening number has held steady, indicating there is respected money on the Razorbacks. Arkansas is a profitable 7-4 ATS overall this season and 9-1 ATS in their last ten away games, including the last five straight. Again, we will buy points and get the line to 3.5 for the betting edge.
Parlay Leg #3: Auburn Tigers +11.5
We go to the Iron Bowl for the anchor leg of our parlay, as we will back the Auburn Tigers +11.5 versus the Alabama Crimson Tide. A couple of angles here as to why we chose the Tigers. The first is the motivation factor; Auburn needs a win to be bowl-eligible. In contrast, Alabama does not have a lot to play for, as they are most likely on the outside looking in on the college football playoff.
Auburn comes in playing very well of late, having won two straight and three of four, including last week’s outright underdog win versus Texas A&M. Auburn is 4-1 ATS in their last five as a dog and 3-1-1 ATS the last five versus the Crimson Tide. The dog is barking in this game, Auburn Tigers are +11.5 to close out this week’s parlay.
Total Parlay Odds: ATS +490/ ML +1932
*Odds Via FanDuel Sportsbook and Subject to Change*
Bonus Leans: Tennessee, Wyoming, Nevada
