We return this week with an NCAA football playoff parlay. We finished our final regular season plays at 1-2 ATS, bringing our regular season NCAA total to 20-26 ATS. Remember that the probability of cashing a three-team parlay is 6/1, so a realistic goal is for us to hit between one and three during the college football season. We are long overdue on our college football parlay selections, as we have been close several times.
In addition, we play these weekly selections straight up and in a money-line parlay because parlays are not a profitable betting strategy. Our weekly parlays target games with reverse line movement, give you a betting edge, and those where Vegas books have a heavy liability. In other words, the betting outcome that Vegas books need to profit on the day. The betting lines are the consensus at Vegas Insider and are subject to change.
Please continue to check this article link or via social media to view any additional plays or leans which will be updated with additional sharp plays and the Vegas Sportsbook needs. Here we go with our NCAA Football playoff parlay: follow or fade.
Parlay Leg #1: Penn State Nittany Lions -8 (Alternate Spread)
We step out of character with play number one, taking the #4 Penn State Nittany Lions -8 over the #10 ranked SMU Mustangs. As you know, we tend to steer clear of betting favorites, but we spotted respected money on the Nittany Lions. SMU is seeing the majority of the ticket count, but the money is on the Nittany Lions. Penn State opened up at -8 and the respected money has moved that to 8.5.
The one hesitation we have backing Penn State is head coach James Franklin’s track record versus ranked opponents. That continued to hold in Penn State’s loss to Oregon, Franklin now stands at 12-26 SU versus a top 25 opponent and 3-18 SU versus those ranked in the top ten. However, SMU is just 4-6 ATS in their last ten as an underdog and has yet to face a legit top team other than their loss to Clemson. We will buy the half point to get the line back down to eight and play on Penn State in the opening leg of our parlay.
Parlay Leg #2: Texas Longhorns -12
Play number two we will continue backing a favorite and take the #3 Texas Longhorns -12 against the #16 Clemson Tigers. Here again, we spot the sharps backing the favorite, with Texas seeing just 39% of the tickets, and yet the line jumped from the opening 10.5 to 12. It is hard not to back an SEC team at home, and the books are saying a lot by making the Longhorns nearly a two-touchdown favorite. Texas is 6-4 ATS in their last ten at home and is giving up just 12.46 points per game. Clemson is just 4-6 ATS in their last ten on the road, so give up the Longhorns -12 for play number two.
Parlay Leg #3: Ohio St. Buckeyes -7
We make it a clean sweep and back another favorite in our anchor leg selection, taking the #6 Ohio State Buckeyes -7 over the #7 Tennessee Volunteers. We see a line hold here, with respected money on the Buckeyes. Tennessee is getting 67% of the tickets and 64% of the money and the line still has not moved off the opening 7. Some books have Ohio State at -7.5, which is even more telling considering where all the current action has been.
The Buckeyes are a profitable 3-2 ATS in their last five overall and 3-2 ATS in the last five at home. On the flip side, Tennessee is just 3-7 ATS in their last ten as an underdog. Give us Ohio State -7 to close out our playoff parlay.
Total Parlay Odds: ATS +590 / ML +118
Bonus Lean: Indiana
*Odds Via FanDuel Sportsbook and Subject to Change*
