Week 12 is here and we are back with our NCAA football parlay. To recap, we were again 1-2 ATS with last week’s selections, bringing us to 14-20 ATS year with our NCAA selections. We have not gained any traction this season with our parlays but if you checked back with our leans section you did very well, as we hit on three of four. Remember that the probability of cashing a three-team parlay is 6/1, so a realistic goal is for us to hit between one to two during the college football season.
In addition, we will play these weekly selections straight up and in a money-line parlay, because in general parlays are not a profitable betting strategy. Our weekly parlays target games with a reverse line movement, other sharp betting angles, and those where Vegas books have a heavy liability. In other words, the betting outcome that Vegas books need to profit on the day. The betting lines are the consensus at Vegas Insider and are subject to change.
Please continue to check back to this article link to view our new bonus leans section, which will be updated with additional plays the Vegas Sportsbooks need to profit on the day. With that being said, here are our Week 12 plays: follow or fade.
Parlay Leg #1: Arkansas Razorbacks +14.5 (Alternate Spread)
Play number one of our Week 12 parlay is the Arkansas Razorbacks +14.5 over the Texas Longhorns. We spot our first sharp play as we have a reverse line movement here. Early on in the books, Texas is seeing 55% of the tickets and 63% of the money. Even with this action, the opening line of 15.5 is already down to 13.5. Arkansas already has one big-time upset under their belt having knocked off Tennessee back in week five.
Arkansas is 6-3 ATS this season and comes off the bye week to regroup from getting blasted by Ole Miss in week 10. Texas is just 2-4 ATS in their last six games and the Razorbacks are also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 as an underdog. We will back the hogs and buy the full point to get the betting edge.
Parlay Leg #2: Utah Utes +10.5
Play number two is not an angle we usually target but upon researching this game, we found that Utah will be a huge need/liability for the books. Colorado has been a covering machine for the public having won seven straight ATS and they are all over the Buffaloes with 67% of the tickets and 75% of the money bets. The Utes ATS record is just 3-6 ATS this season, however, they are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 as a dog and 6-2-2 ATS last 10 versus Colorado. We are straight-up fading the public this week in the middle leg of our parlay, give us the Utes and the 10.5.
Parlay Leg #3: Missouri Tigers +12.5
Play number three we go back to the SEC and back the Missouri Tigers +12.5 against the South Carolina Gamecocks. We are seeing some respected money come in on the Tigers as the opening line of 13 has already come down to the current 12.5. Missouri is 5-4 ATS this season and 7-3 SU in their last versus the Gamecocks. The Tigers are also 7-3 ATS in their last on the road. South Carolina is just 5-5 ATS in the last 10 at home, giving us Missouri and the points this week to round out the Week 12 parlay.
Total Parlay Odds: ATS Parlay: +580/ ML Parlay: +10087
Bonus Leans: Air Force, San Jose St, Washington State
*Odds Via FandDuel Sportsbook and Subject to Change*
