Week 10 is upon us and we are back for our NCAA football parlay, to recap, we again were 1-2 ATS on last week’s selections. That brings us to a 12-16 record ATS year with our NCAA picks, a bit frustrating as we have not got the traction we expect. However, as we say at Total Apex Sports, respect the hustle and grind! Remember that the probability of cashing a three-team parlay is 6/1, so a realistic goal is for us to hit on two or three for the season.
In addition, we will play these weekly selections straight up and in a money-line parlay. Our weekly Parlay target games with a reverse line movement and those where Vegas books have a heavy liability on one team. In other words, the betting outcome that Vegas books need to profit on the day. The betting lines are those posted by the consensus at Vegas Insider and are subject to change.
We are adding a bonus leans section that will be updated with additional plays the Vegas Sportsbooks need to profit on the day. So be sure to keep checking back to the parlay article link. Here we go with our week 10 plays, follow or fade.
Parlay Leg #1: Arkansas Razorbacks +7.5 (Alternate Spread)
The opening leg of this week’s NCAA parlay is the Arkansas Razorbacks +7.5 over the Ole Miss Rebels. Arkansas is a sharp play in week 10, Ole Miss is seeing 76% of the tickets and 69% of the money and the line has dropped from -9.5 down to its current 7. The Razorbacks are 4-1 ATS the last five and 7-3 ATS the last ten games as an underdog. Arkansas has a great betting history versus Ole Miss, as they are 7-1-2 ATS in the last ten versus the Rebels. We will buy the half and back Arkansas in play number one.
Parlay Leg #2: Penn State Nittany Lions +3.5
The middle leg is not a sharp play that we target regularly. We are going straight to a public fade and backing the third-ranked and home underdog Penn State Nittany Lions. Ohio State is currently getting 80% of the spread bets and 86% of the money handle is the big-time matchup. We love to fade the public in prime-time games. Penn State against the Buckeyes is 6-2-2 ATS last ten games overall and 6-2-2 ATS in their last ten as an underdog.
Parlay Leg #3: UCLA Bruins +7 (Alternate Spread)
The anchor leg of this week’s parlay is the UCLA Bruins +7 against the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Nebraska nearly beat Ohio State last week and is in a possible letdown spot. We spot a reverse line movement with Nebraska seeing a whopping 92% of the tickets and 87% of the money bets and yet the line has dropped from 8.5 to its current 6.5. UCLA is 6-4 ATS in their last 10 overall and 4-1 ATS in their last five as an underdog. We buy back the half-point and play on the Bruins in week 10.
Total Parlay Odds: ATS +463 / Money Line +1114
*Odds Via FanDuel Sports Book and Subject to Change*
Bonus Leans: UTSA, Stanford, South Carolina, Air Force/Army ov40.5, Houston, SMU
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