Week 9 is upon us and we are back for our NCAA football parlay, to recap, we again were 1-2 ATS on last week’s selections. That brings us to an 11-14 record ATS year with our NCAA picks, a bit frustrating as we have not got that traction we expect. However, as we say at Total Apex Sports, respect the hustle and grind! Remember that the probability of cashing a three-team parlay is 6/1, so a realistic goal is for us to hit on two or three for the season.
In addition, we will play these picks straight up and as a money-line parlay. This week our NCAA Football Parlay plays are targeting games with a reverse line movement or where Vegas books have a heavy liability on one team. In other words, the betting outcome that Vegas books need to profit on the day.
The betting lines are those posted by the consensus at Vegas Insider and are subject to change. We have also added some additional leans we like based on early line movement. Here we go with our week 9 plays, follow or fade.
Parlay Leg #1: Navy Midshipman +14.5 (Alternate Spread)
The opening leg of our week 9 parlay features the Navy Midshipman +14 versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Sharp money came in on Navy early in the week as the opening line of 17, has now dropped to 13. Navy is among the best in college football this season going 5-1 ATS and looking to avenge last year’s humiliating 42-3 defeat in South Bend.
Navy is averaging a robust 44.83 points per game and this is no doubt outside Army, the game circled on their schedule. Notre Dame is by no means a pushover, they are ranked 12th in the nation and 5-2 ATS this season. However, the Irish are just 1-2-2 ATS in the five games at Navy. We will buy back some points get to 14.5 and take the Midshipman in parlay leg number one.
Parlay Leg #2: Tulane/North Texas over 65.5
In the middle leg of our parlay, we will go with a total wager and the over 66 in the Tulane Green Wave versus North Texas Mean Green. We spot a reverse line movement on the total with 78% of the bets on the under and yet the opening line of 65 has risen full point to 66 at online books. North Texas and Tulane average a combined 81.15 points per game.
Both teams have been profitable going over the total this season, with North Texas at 6-1 and Tulane at 4-3. The Over is 5-0 last five and 7-3 in the last 10 overall games that North Texas has played. This game also features a line hold with Tulane holding steady at +8 and yet the bets are on North Texas. Pairing a live underdog with an over-total is an excellent betting angle and so we play over 66 in the middle parlay leg.
Parlay Leg #3: Mississippi St. Bulldogs +7.5 (Alternate Spread)
The anchor leg of our parlay is the Mississippi State Bull Dogs +7.5 versus the Arkansas Razorbacks. This game features another sharp play with 94% of the money bets backing Arkansas and the line of 8.5 has dropped down to 6 at some online books. Mississippi State has won three straight ATS for +2.73 units and and 4-1 ATS in their last five versus the Razorbacks. Arkansas is 3-7 SU in their last 10 versus the Bulldogs, we buy some points back to 7.5 and take Mississippi State in the final parlay leg.
Total Parlay Odds: ATS +425 / Money Line +2277
*Odds Via FanDuel Sportsbook and Subject to Change*
Additional Leans: Buffalo, Nebraska, Vanderbilt, Wisconsin
For More Great Content
Craving top-tier content that covers it all? From electrifying sports highlights and insider entertainment news to expert gaming tips to sharp betting advice, we’ve got you covered. Dive into our curated articles to stay ahead of the game with the latest sports action, uncover the hottest trends in entertainment, and get the lowdown on gaming strategies that could level up your play. Plus, our betting advice will sharpen your edge and boost your chances of winning big. Whether you’re looking to stay updated or gain a competitive edge, our content is your go-to source for all things exciting and relevant. Don’t miss out – explore now and power up your knowledge! Follow us on Twitter/X @TotalApexSports, to stay informed.
