Better late than never, as we finally cashed in the NCAA by hitting on our round-one college football playoff parlay. Last week’s sweep, brings our NCAA season record to 23-26 ATS. Remember we play these in a money-line parlay and to these selections straight up because parlays, in general, are not a profitable betting strategy.
Our weekly parlay targets games where the sharp/respected money is or those where Vegas books have a heavy liability. In other words, the betting outcome that Vegas books need to profit on the day. The betting lines are the consensus at Vegas Insider and are subject to change.
Please continue to check this article link or via social media to view our bonus leans which will be updated with additional sharp plays or Vegas Sportsbook needs. Here we go with our NCAA Football Bowl Game Parlay: Follow or Fade.
Parlay Leg #1: Navy Midshipman +3.5 (Alternate Spread)
The opening leg of our Bowl Game parlay is the Navy Midshipman +3.5 over the Oklahoma Sooners. Many times in these bowl games the team most motivated ends up on the winning side. Navy is having a tremendous season and comes in fresh off their upset win over Army. We are fading the public here with Oklahoma seeing 62% of the tickets and 56% of the money bets. The line opened at Oklahoma -9 and is now down to 3. The huge line shift is due mostly due to Oklahoma starting quarterback Jackson Arnold signing with Auburn.
Navy is 8-4 ATS overall this season including 4-1 in their last five. The Midshipman are a profitable 5-4-1 ATS in their last ten games as a dog. We found that sharp money was placed on Navy at +3, so we will buy the half-point to get a betting edge, and back the Midshipman getting 3.5.
Parlay Leg #2: Texas Tech Red Raiders +1.5 (Alternate Spread)
In the middle leg, we will take the Texas Tech Red Raiders +1.5 over the Arkansas Razorbacks. We found our staple reverse line movement here, as Arkansas is getting the majority of the spread and money bets and the opening line of +2.5 has dropped down to +1. At some sites, the line has already moved Texas Tech to the favorite.
The Red Raiders are 7-4-1 ATS overall on the season and 7-2-1 ATS in the last ten. On top of that, Texas Tech is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog and Arkansas is just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 as a favorite. We again buy the hook to get the all-important half-point on our side and take Texas Tech for play number two.
Parlay Leg #3: Texas A&M Aggies -3 (Alternate Spread)
The anchor leg of our Bowl Game Parlay will be the Texas A&M Aggies -4 over the USC Trojans. It is out of character for us to back a favorite, but early respected money was placed on the Aggies. As a result, A&M moved from an opening -1 to its current -3.5.
Both teams are dealing with opt-outs as USC lost both starting wideouts to the portal and the Aggies lost a top defensive lineman. Despite the less-than-stellar ATS numbers, we like an Aggies team that is 8-2 SU in their last 10 games overall as a favorite. Make sure you shop lines and get this number down to 3. We will lay the points here with Texas A&M versus a USC team that is just 2-8 ATS in their last ten games away from home.
Total Parlay Odds: ATS +533 / ML +554
Bonus Lean: TBD
*Odds Via FanDuel Sportsbook and Subject to Change*
