In 2023, the Braves continued their 21st-century dominance of the National League East. The division was projected to be among the most competitive, but the Mets seriously underperformed and the Phillies struggled with injuries to key players. As such, the Braves clinched the division 14 games up on their long-standing rivals. Despite the regular season success, the Phillies defeated the Braves early in the playoffs, advancing further than their divisional foe for the second year in a row.
A new year brings a new season. While anything can happen in baseball, we like to think we know a little more than the average Joe here at Total Apex. With none of the big free agents landing in the National League East, the division remains in a similar place it ended last year. Here’s how we think 2024 shakes out.
Atlanta Braves (Predicted Finish: 105-57, Odds to Win Division: -270 DK, -230 FD)
2023 Finish: 104-58, First Place in National League East
This Braves team is built to dominate the regular season. They have an extremely talented young core that mashes the ball. They had the most home runs of any team in 2023, by a margin of more than 50 homers over the second-place Dodgers. The reigning MVP Ronald Acuña comes off a historic 40 HR 70 SB season ready to terrorize the National League East again. On top of this already loaded team, the Braves added former Red and White Sox stud pitcher Chris Sale in a late-December trade.
This addition has the Braves set for their best rotation since the Maddux-Smoltz-Glavine era. Max Fried will enter the year healthy. Spencer Strider comes off a 281-strikeout season. Charlie Morton bounced back for a strong sophomore season with the Braves. This puts them in an even better position to succeed than their 104-win team was last year. This team is scary. It’s not a reach to say they’re every bit as good as the reloaded Dodgers on the other side of the country.
Philadelphia Phillies (Predicted Finish: 95-67, Odds to Win Division: +320 DK, +300 FD)
2023 Finish: 90-72, Second Place in National League East, First Wildcard Winner
The Phillies had a strong 2023 season, heading to the playoffs through the Wildcard for the second year in a row. The team woke up from a slow start to make the postseason. After being 34-34 on June 14th they went 56-38 for the rest of the season. This represented a .596 winning percentage over the final 94 games.
The Phillies faced some stumbling blocks in 2023. Bryce Harper missed about 40 games. Trea Turner had a .687 OPS in the first half. Aaron Nola significantly underperformed compared to his career numbers. This squashed any chance of challenging the Braves. However, they did get revenge on their division rivals in the Divisional Round.
The Phillies let Rhys Hopkins walk, but they did sign Aaron Nola to a new seven-year contract. Otherwise, their team remains about the same as in 2023. With a fully healthy Harper and a locked-in Turner (who had a .907 OPS in the second half), they’re poised for an even more successful season than 2023. If Nola can live up to his $172 million contract and Ranger Suarez can return to 2022 status it should be a great year for the Phils.
New York Mets (Predicted finish 82-80, Odds to Win Division: +950 DK, +1100 FD)
2023 Finish: 75-87, Fourth Place in National League East
The Mets had a woeful 2023, finishing 26 games behind their 2022 win total. The Mets punted on the year at the trade deadline. They dealt away future Hall of Famers Scherzer and Verlander for prospects. Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil also had the worst seasons of their careers in 2023. Buck Showalter is no longer helming the squad, with Carlos Mendoza as the new manager. The lone bright spot was Francisco Lindor, who posted a 30 HR-30 SB year and finished 6th in the NL in WAR.
The Mets missed out on the Ohtani and Yamamoto sweepstakes, and could not re-sign David Robertson. They did, however, re-sign Adam Ottavino, and added Jake Diekman to sure up the bullpen. They took a flier on Luis Severino, who has succeeded in the Big Apple with the Yankees. Also, The Mets will have Edwin Diaz back from his devastating World Baseball Classic celebration injury, and a healthy Starling Marte.
The Mets have 4 prospects in MLB’s Top 100 List. Luisangel Acuña, the younger brother of Ronald, acquired in the Scherzer deal, is set to join the big league squad this year. Drew Gilbert, a promising power-hitting outfielder added in the Verlander trade should be ready in 2024, as well.
If Alonso, McNeil, Lindor, Nimmo, and Marte can play to the back of their baseball cards, the Mets will have a strong core to build a winning season around. However, their weak starting pitching will likely keep them out of the playoffs.
Florida Marlins (Predicted finish 75-87, Odds to Win Division: +1500 DK, +2700 FD)
2023 Finish: 84-78, Third Place in National League East, Second Wildcard Winner
The Marlins had a terrific season in 2023, where they shocked the league with a Wildcard berth. Despite a Cy Young hangover season that ended in Tommy John for Sandy Alcantara, the Marlins made the playoffs after winning 84 games.
However, the team is not in the same place for this upcoming season as they were last year. First, Don Mattingly has departed as manager (despite securing multiple playoff trips with a young and unproven roster). Second, Kim Ng, the first woman GM in MLB history, declined her 2024 option. Next, Jorge Soler and Yuli Gurriel walked to free agency, the Marlins also traded away 2023 batting title winner Luis Arraez. Further, they could not retain David Robertson after acquiring him last year from the Mets. Finally, their stud pitcher Sandy Alcantara will miss the entire year with his elbow injury.
The Marlins will have a fully healthy Jazz Chisholm, and Sixto Sanchez should be returning to the rotation, but the positives for this season end there. Josh Bell returns to the squad as well, but he does not move the needle enough to make the Marlins a contender again.
Washington Nationals (Predicted Finish: 66-96, Odds to Win Division: +8000 DK, +12000 FD)
2023 Finish: 71-91, Fifth Place National League East
The Nationals are simply not good. Last year they were 20 games under .500 at the deadline. There’s no reason to believe they’ll be improved this year. Unfortunately, Strasburg is not coming back. Corbin has been batting practice since the 2019 World Series win. Victor Robles has not panned out as a player. The roster is filled with the chaff from other teams like the recently added Nick Senzel. Players like Keibert Ruiz and Joey Meneses may have serious breakout seasons and push the team nearer to .500, but we doubt it. It’s gonna be a tough season in Washington again.
Also Check out:
American League East 2024 Preview and Predictions
American League Central 2024 Preview and Predictions
About the Author
Ryan is a writer from Long Island, New York. He graduated from Boston University with a degree in English. A long-suffering Mets, Jets, and Knicks fan, he hopes to see a championship sometime this century.
