The Mountain West Tournament tips off Wednesday in Las Vegas. This past season has arguably been the most exciting in the history of the conference. Furthermore, there are currently five teams in the conference that are locked for the NCAA tournament. Also, there are a couple of others on or near the bubble (I’m looking at you, New Mexico) who could use this week to boost their resume to get on the selection committee’s good side. After a year of late-night buzzer-beaters, high-scoring games, and just utter chaos; this Mountain West tournament will be a must-see on TV. Just what we need to springboard us into the first round of the NCAA Tournament next week.
Utah State took home their first outright Mountain West Tournament title over the weekend in a thriller vs. New Mexico on a late Darrius Brown II three-pointer. This title was undeniably no cakewalk for the first-place Aggies. The next six teams below them had good seasons and are dangerous. Nevada is the hottest team in the conference, while San Diego State boasts a great defense and has a lot of players from the Final Four team last season. Colorado State was ranked in the top 25 most of the season. UNLV has been good in conference play, enough to get them up to the four seed.
Boise State in their last game snapped San Diego State’s 20-game home win streak. Then there’s New Mexico, who is undoubtedly playing for their NCAA tournament lives this week with the Mountain West Tournament. They have electric guards and lead the Mountain West in scoring with 82.3 PPG.
Mountain West Tournament Betting Odds
| San Diego State | +260 |
| Utah State | +425 |
| Nevada | +500 |
| UNLV | +550 |
| New Mexico | +600 |
| Boise State | +600 |
| Colorado State | +750 |
| Wyoming | +25000 |
| Fresno State | +35000 |
| San Jose State | +50000 |
| Air Force | +50000 |
**Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook**
Mountain West Tournament Bracket
Total Apex Tale of the Tape
Mountain West Tournament
| Air Force | Boise State | Fresno State | Colorado State | Nevada | UNLV | |
| W/L | 9-21 | 22-9 | 11-20 | 22-9 | 26-6 | 19-11 |
| Streak | L4 | W1 | L7 | W2 | W7 | L1 |
| MW W/L | 2-16 | 13-5 | 4-14 | 10-8 | 13-5 | 12-6 |
| PPG | 66.5 | 76.1 | 67.1 | 76.7 | 76.4 | 73.3 |
| OPPG | 72 | 67.3 | 73.5 | 68.1 | 66.5 | 67.6 |
| RPG | 28.2 | 36.9 | 31.2 | 32.5 | 34.6 | 34.2 |
| APG | 14.6 | 12.5 | 12.4 | 18.5 | 15.2 | 13.3 |
| BPG | 3.9 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 4.5 |
| SPG | 6.5 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 6.3 |
| Fouls | 17.6 | 16.6 | 15.3 | 16.9 | 17.5 | 16.2 |
| FG% | 45.5% | 45.8% | 45.2% | 49.3% | 47.5% | 46% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 34.8% | 33.2% | 34.6% | 36.6% | 33.2% |
| FT% | 68.2% | 73.4% | 67% | 75.6% | 72.1% | 72.3% |
| OFG% | 47.5% | 43.8% | 46.4% | 43% | 41.5% | 42.3% |
| O3PT% | 36.9% | 31.3% | 37.3% | 33.3% | 31.7% | 31.6% |
| New Mexico | San Diego State | San Jose State | Utah State | Wyoming | ||
| W/L | 22-9 | 22-9 | 9-22 | 26-5 | 15-16 | |
| Streak | L1 | L2 | L6 | W5 | W2 | |
| MW W/L | 10-8 | 11-7 | 2-16 | 14-4 | 8-10 | |
| PPG | 82.3 | 74.7 | 69.9 | 79.9 | 72.8 | |
| OPPG | 71.8 | 66.3 | 75.2 | 69.6 | 74.4 | |
| RPG | 39.2 | 37.5 | 30.9 | 36.2 | 34.6 | |
| APG | 14.6 | 13.1 | 13.5 | 16.5 | 11.6 | |
| BPG | 4.9 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.4 | |
| SPG | 8.9 | 7.4 | 5.2 | 6.8 | 5 | |
| Fouls | 18.1 | 17.3 | 17.1 | 16.9 | 15.6 | |
| FG% | 46% | 44.5% | 44.9% | 49.8% | 45.2% | |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 31.6% | 34.6% | 33.6% | 36.8% | |
| FT% | 71.2% | 73.6% | 69.9% | 71.8% | 74.7% | |
| OFG% | 43.3% | 40.6% | 47.2% | 43.6% | 45.2% | |
| O3PT% | 30.5% | 30.6% | 38.9% | 28.2% | 34.2% |
Mountain West Tournament Predictions
There are Mountain West Tournament tiers in this bracket. Firstly, there’s the “Thanks for coming out” tier. Sorry, Fresno State, San Jose State, Air Force, and Wyoming. No miracle run here. Secondly, the “Not as good as seed line” tier. UNLV; there’s a reason why they are fourth and not on the bubble. The other team here is Boise State. I can’t unsee them getting dominated on their home floor last Tuesday. Thirdly, we have the “Dark Horses” tier. New Mexico is here because their guard play can carry them come tourney time. Colorado State has lost in the final seconds multiple times in the last few weeks which tanked their seed. Finally, the “Favorites” tier is with San Diego State, Utah State, and Nevada. SDSU because of their pedigree, Utah State because they did win the regular season title, and Nevada because of the seven-game win streak.
I have the semi-finals being SDSU vs Utah State and Nevada v New Mexico. Then I have the #1 seed Utah State matching up versus the sixth-seeded New Mexico Lobos in the Mountain West Tournament championship game. I love the value of New Mexico as they have the guards you can trust when it’s money time in a big moment. New Mexico wins the rubber match and punches its ticket to the big dance.
Mountain West Tournament Final Pick
New Mexico +600
About the Author
Follow Cory on x @cory_pappas1 for more college basketball game previews/picks as we approach March Madness!
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