MLB Best Player Prop Bets for 7/30/2024
I will be going over the best player props for today’s slate and why they hold value for the specific prop!
Corbin Burnes UNDER 5.5 Hits Allowed
Corbin Burnes is in a sneaky good matchup. Burnes faces the Toronto Blue Jays in today’s game. The Blue Jays have not been very productive vs righties this season, with a very subpar .242 batting average, which ranks 16th in the MLB. Toronto also has a high 17.5% soft contact rate which is tied for the third-highest this season. On the road specifically vs righties, the Blue Jays have an even worse .234 batting average and Bo Bichette remains out with an injury and they just traded away Justin Turner. Burnes is under in this prop in 12 of his 21 starts, however his advanced metrics are strong. He ranks in the 94th percentile for hard hit percentage and in the 79th percentile in average exit velocity. He has excellent swing-and-miss stats as well as he is in the 89th percentile chase rate and 77th percentile whiff percentage. Expected batting average of .229, which ranks in the 69th percentile. Also, this game has a significant rain delay potential. Rain is expected, if we get a mid-game delay, Burnes would likely get pulled.
David Festa OVER 4.5 Hits Allowed
David Festa gets a matchup against the New York Mets. The Mets have been hitting right-handed pitchers well recently, .268 batting average against righties at home in the last 30 days, which is ninth in the MLB. Over the last 14 days against righties, the Mets have hit even better with a .273 (.275 at home) batting average. They have good advanced metrics during this stretch as well, with a 24.6% line drive rate which is second in the MLB. Also, Festa has allowed 20 hits in 14.1 innings in three MLB appearances. In the minors, it is not much better as he has allowed 60 hits in 64.1 innings this year. I am backing a hot offense to get five hits against an inexperienced pitcher.
Robbie Ray OVER 1.5 Walks Allowed
Robbie Ray faces the Oakland Athletics tonight. In his first start coming back from injury, he had two walks and also two hit by pitches against the Los Angeles Dodgers which shows his control is still a bit rusty. However, the Athletics are a BRUTAL matchup for this prop specifically because they have been very patient. the A’s have a huge 11.4% walk rate vs. lefties in the last 30 days which is the second-most in the MLB. Oakland has drawn 17 walks in 28.1 innings against their last six left-handed pitchers that have started.
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