The #2 Purdue Boilermakers (25-3, 14-3) host the Michigan State Spartans (17-11, 9-8) tonight, with Purdue looking to wrap up another Big Ten regular-season title. It would clinch at least a share of first place with a win and an Illinois loss, and sole possession of the title with both results.
It will be a tall order for Michigan State to take home the victory, as it finds itself on the Bubble despite lofty preseason expectations. The Spartans haven’t won at the Mackey Arena since 2014. Meanwhile, Purdue has a chance to earn the number one overall seed if they run the table before the NCAA Tournament begins. Center Zach Edey continues to terrorize the league, leading in scoring and rebounding. Guard Braden Smith has also spread the ball effectively, leading the Big Ten in assists.
Michigan State Spartans at #2 Purdue Boilermakers Betting Odds
| Team | Spread | Total | Money Line |
| Michigan State Spartans | +10.5 (-112) | O 145 (-112) | +440 |
| Purdue Boilermakers | -10.5 (-108) | U 145 (-108) | -600 |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Match Details
Fixture: Michigan State at #2 Purdue Boilermakers
Date/Time: Saturday, March 2; 8:00 pm; FOX
Venue: Mackey Arena; West Lafayette, IN
Team Stats:
Michigan State Spartans
PPG: 74.4
FG%: 47.1
3-Point FG%: 36.7
FT%: 70
Rebounds: 34.4
Assists: 16.7
Turnovers: 9.9
PPG Allowed: 66
Steals: 7.1
Blocks: 4
Fouls: 16
Purdue Boilermakers
PPG: 84.8
FG%: 49.1
3-Point FG%: 40.2
FT%: 72.2
Rebounds: 40.9
Assists: 18.4
Turnovers: 11.5
PPG Allowed: 70.1
Steals: 5.8
Blocks: 3.9
Fouls: 13.9
Projected Starting Lineups
Michigan State Spartans
PG – A.J. Hoggard (11.2 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 5 apg, 1.4 spg)
G – Tyson Walker (18.1 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 2.9 apg, 1.9 spg)
G – Jaden Akins (10.8 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 1.3 apg, 1.1 spg)
F – Malik Hall (12.9 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 2.9 apg, 1.9 spg)
C – Mady Sissoko (3.7 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 0.5 bpg)
Purdue Boilermakers
PG – Braden Smith II (12.7 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 7.3 apg, 1.8 spg)
G – Lance Jones (13 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 2.3 apg, 1.3 spg)
G – Fletcher Loyer (10.1 ppg, 2 rpg, 1.7 apg)
F – Trey Kaufman-Renn (6.5 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 1 apg)
C – Zach Edey (23.7 ppg, 11.8 rpg, 1.8 apg, 2.2 bpg)
Michigan State at Purdue Prediction
While Purdue is clearly the better team, the Spartans can hang their hat on their defense. They currently rank 15th in the nation in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. Additionally, the team will be desperate coming off of back-to-back losses. Expect them to play Purdue physically and aggressively from tipoff, especially with the Boilermakers’ perimeter shooting threats. While Edey is essentially unstoppable, guys like Hoggard and Walker will relentlessly defend Jones, Loyer and Smith II. Take the under here, as Michigan State allows just 68 points per game in conference play.
As for the outcome, Purdue should be able to take care of business at home. However, the spread is generous, especially considering Walker’s scoring ability. With a NCAA Tournament bid possibly at stake here, Michigan State will do everything in its power to keep the game close.
Final Pick
Michigan State Spartans +10.5 and Under 145
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