The Miami Heat (33-25) take on the Denver Nuggets (40-19) in a rematch of last year’s NBA Finals. This is the first time these two teams have met this season. They seem to be taking a similar attitude for the regular season. While they are not ignoring the standings, these two teams feel good about how they match up against any team in the NBA.
The Miami Heat have been surging lately, but can they overcome Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets’ offense?
Miami Heat Vs. Denver Nuggets: Betting Odds and Details
| Team | Spread | Total | MoneyLine |
| Miami Heat | +4.5 -108 |
O 214.0 -112 |
+160 |
| Denver Nuggets | -4.5 -112 |
U 214.0 -108 |
-192 |
| ** Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook** | |||
Fixture: Miami Heat @ Denver Nuggets
Date And Time: February 29, 2024 @ 10:00 p.m. EST
Location: Ball Arena in Denver, CO
Key Stats
Miami Heat (Averages)
Points: 110.6
Points Allowed: 109.9
Field Goal Efficiency: 39.7/85.5 for 46.5%
Three-Pont Efficiency: 12.4/33.2 for 37.5%
Free Throw Efficiency: 18.7/22.9 for 81.8%
Rebounds: 9.6 Offensive, 32.5 Defensive, 42.1 Combined
Assists: 25.9
Steals: 7.4
Blocks: 3.4
Turnovers: 13.1
Field Goal Efficiency Against: 40.7/86.3 for 47.2%
Three-Point Efficiency Against: 13.3/36.7 for 36.2%
Free Throw Efficiency Against: 15.2/19.9 for 76.6%
Rebounds Against: 9.5 Offensive, 33.4 Defensive, 42.9 Combined
The Miami Heat are the horror movie monster that nobody can kill. No matter what happens during the season, this team always hangs around. They are on a five-game winning streak with wins against the Bucks, Kings, 76ers, Pelicans, and Blazers. Outside of the Blazers, these are playoff-caliber teams. In three of those games, they have held opponents to under 100 points, which is difficult to do in today’s NBA.
Even though the Miami Heat seem outmatched in this game, it is impossible to count them out because of their defense. Tyler Herro is a game-time decision, and Kevin Love is out with a heel injury. If he does play, that will be a huge boost to the offense. Miami is trying to extend a six-game road winning streak.
Denver Nuggets (Averages)
Points: 114.6
Points Allowed: 110.4
Field Goal Efficiency: 43.8/88.9 for 49.3%
Three-Pont Efficiency: 11.5/31.3 for 36.7%
Free Throw Efficiency: 15.5/20.5 for 75.7%
Rebounds: 11.0 Offensive, 33.3 Defensive, 44.4 Combined
Assists: 29.1
Steals: 6.9
Blocks: 5.4
Turnovers: 12.7
Field Goal Efficiency Against: 40.8/87.6 for 46.5%
Three-Point Efficiency Against: 11.4/31.4 for 36.4%
Free Throw Efficiency Against: 17.5/22.4 for 77.9%
Rebounds Against: 10.9 Offensive, 31.2 Defensive, 42.1 Combined
The Denver Nuggets have looked like a championship contender all year. Nikola Jokic is having another MVP-worthy season. Jamaal Murray has quietly been one of the best guards in the league. The team is 7-3 over the past ten games, with Michael Porter Jr. averaging 16.1 points and 6.2 rebounds during that span.
This team is on the second night of a back-to-back. However, they dispatched the Kings easily and coasted down the stretch. There are no major injuries to report.
Game Prediction
There are two main reasons why I am taking the Nuggets to cover on Thursday. The first is the Heat’s lack of size. We saw this in the NBA Finals last year. Jokic was too much, and the Miami Heat didn’t gain any size inside. In fact, Bam Adebayo is really the only big man they have with Love out. Jokic and Aaron Gordon will likely dominate inside. The second is that the Nuggets are at home, where they have handled opponents well. Give me Denver to easily cover the spread but not a lot of points to be scored.
Final Pick
Denver Nuggets -4.5 and Under 214.0
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Matt has been following sports since he was a kid. While football is his primary focus, Matt can talk about any sport anytime. He is a banker in Wisconsin and hosts two podcasts, Beers and Ears & Discontinued on Display.
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