The Houston Astros have gone from surging to stumbling, thanks to a feisty Pittsburgh Pirates squad that has taken the first two games of this three-gamer. The Pirates are now just two game out of the last NL wild card slot, while the Astros find themselves one back of Seattle after dropping three straight.
Pittsburgh picked up Paul Skenes in the opening game when Skenes was “only” able to go six innings, and last night the Buccos got a strong start from Bailey Falter and a home run from Michael Taylor to cruise to a surprisingly easy 6-2 win.
The Astros will look to Frambler Valdez to turn the tide, which is a solid choice given Valdez’s recent outings. Jake Woodford will toe the rubber for the Pirates in what looks like a bit of a pitching mismatch, so let’s see what the odds, stats and trends say to come up with a value play.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Odds
| Team | Spread | Total | MoneyLine |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | +1.5
(-120) |
O 8.5
(Even) |
+175 |
| Houston Astros | -1.5
(Even) |
U 8.5
(-120) |
-210 |
| **ESPN BET, Odds Subject to Change** | |||
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Match Details
- Fixture: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros
- Date and Time: July 31, 2024 @8:10 EST
- Location: Minute Maid Park, Houston, Texas
Apex Tale of the Tape
| Pittsburgh Pirates | vs. | Houston Astros |
| 55-52 | Record | 55-52 |
| 4.18 | Runs/G | 4.64 |
| .232 | BA | .262 |
| .301 | OBP | .321 |
| .369 | SLG | .418 |
| .670 | OPS | .739 |
| 107 | HR | 122 |
| 63 | SB | 66 |
| 3.78 | ERA | 4.02 |
| 1.28 | WHIP | 1.30 |
| 27 | Saves | 25 |
| 0.986 | Fielding % | 0.988 |
Key Stats
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates typically struggle to score, but they’ve put up 17 runs in their last three games, which is a big part of the reason they’re currently riding a three-game winning streak. Michael Taylor has been the power source, homering in each of the last two Pittsburgh wins, with catcher Joey Bart and first baseman Connor Roe chipping in to provide offensives support last night.
They normally pitch well, but Jake Woodford may be problematic today. He comes in having allowed ten runs in his last two starts, and his overall ERA is 4.57 this year, which will have Houston’s lineup licking their collective chops, especially with Pittsburgh finishing up a tough six-game road trip.
Houston Astros
The Astros rely on offense to win, and when the pitching is there it becomes a lot easier. Unfortunately that hasn’t been the case lately–the ‘Stros have given up 17 runs in their last three games, and the offense has been surprisingly inert, scoring just seven during that stretch. Catcher Yainer Diaz has stayed hot, going 4 for 4 last night, but he didn’t get a lot of help from the rest of the lineup, so Jose Altuve and company need to pick it up to help Houston keep pace.
Enter Frambler Valdez. He’s been The Man lately, with Houston posting wins in his last five starts, and Valdez hasn’t given up more than three earned runs in any of them. He’s been especially strong in his last three starts, giving up just three runs overall, so the Astros will rely on him today to shut down the Pirates. Houston needs this game to stay with Seattle, which makes this an even bigger outing for Houston’s big stopper.
Prediction
A bet on these two teams having the same record after 100+ games probably would have been a big winner, but in this one all the pitching numbers favor Houston, so the question is where the value is and whether the Astros offense will wake up against Woodford. The temptation is to give up the 1.5 runs, go for even money and bet the spread, especially with a hefty money line of -210. Given how shaky Houston has been of late, we’ll take the surer thing and go with the Astros and the money line.
Final Pick
Houston Astros – Money Line – -210
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