Part two of the wagering series, which is to get a betting edge, will continue to have football as a focal point. However, as stated in part one, these betting strategies can be applied to other sports. This article will deal with first and second-half betting totals. In part one, a betting strategy discussed was getting the right number. Numbers are not all created equal, and this is no more evident than in football. As a sports bettor, target a heavy favorite for the first half total and a live underdog for the second half total.
First Half Over Betting Edge
First and foremost, you can get a betting edge by wagering the first half over on games with a heavy betting favorite. The heavy chalk will come with the expectation of a fast start, an early lead, and most importantly a high implied total.
Let us use an authentic example, under Nick Saban, Alabama would be heavy chalk in the early part of their non-conference schedule. Alabama would get out to a quick start, have multiple scoring drives, and cover the first half over total. The heavily favored teams show a tendency to go all out in the first half and then back off in the second half.
Each week when you study and shop lines across various sites, find the heavy favorite and look to play on the first half over. Remember in part one of our wagering series, a successful sports bettor is one with a win rate at or above 52.4 percent.
Second Half Over Betting Edge
To get a betting edge with the second half over, we look in the opposite direction. We want to find an active or live underdog. If the underdog gets off to a fast start in the first half, then look to play on the second half over. In this scenario, the underdog is playing above expectation and on pace to go above their implied team total.
For example, Alabama is a 14-point favorite over Kentucky in SEC play. Kentucky is off to a fast start and leads by four at halftime. Here you would play on the second half over. Betting probability is telling us that Alabama will have to score more to catch up to their implied team total and cover the large spread. This, in turn, will lead to more scoring by Alabama in the second half.
Final Thoughts
Remember to shop lines, target the heavy favorite for the first half, and live underdogs for the second half. Do not forget about the core numbers in football that we spoke of in part one when you are placing your wagers. Beware of the hook, over 24.5 is an avoid while 24 and 23.5 are a betting edge. Get the right number, as we discussed in part one.
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