With the football season upon us, sports wagering will be moving more to the forefront. Today, I will begin a series of articles dealing with how to get a betting edge. We will touch on other sports, but our primary focus will be American Football. In part one, we will discuss two different angles when placing a wager on either a side or a total. With the number of posted betting lines, we need a way to decipher through all of them and find the betting edge.
You will see different wagering terms used in this series of articles. Sharp bettors, which are the respected bettors, and Squares, which are the general betting public. Sides or ATS are wagers against the spread and Totals, which represent the number of points scored in each contest.
Keep in mind, knowing we want to win every wager, but the magic number for the average sports bettor is a 52.4 percent win rate. For reference, the best professional sports bettors have an approximate win rate of 55 percent.
Reverse Line Movement
Reverse line movement is the strongest indicator of a sharp or respected bettor. This betting advantage indicator is one of a few key indicators when placing a wager. A reverse line movement is defined as money and wagers placed on Team A and yet the line or total moves in favor of Team B.
For example, let us say the opening line in the Kansas City Chiefs/Las Vegas Raiders game is Chiefs -7. We researched and found that 70% of the bets and money are on the Chiefs. In logical theory, the line should have moved the Chiefs to -7.5. However, the line moved to Chiefs -6.5. This indicates that sharp or respected money was placed on the Raiders. The respected bettor has wagered a significant dollar amount to move that line. When we see this line movement, we want to wager on this contest to get a betting edge.
The same wagering technique can be used when betting a Total. Using the same game scenario, The Chiefs/Raiders game has an opening Total set at 47. We identify the majority of bets and money are on the over 47 and yet the total dropped to 46. This is a reverse line movement, wager on under 46 to get a betting edge! As stated earlier, the reverse line movement is a strong indicator of a sharp or respected betting wager.
Get On The Right Number
When it comes to totals and sides, not all wagers are created equal. You want to get yourself on the right number(s). In football, for example, the numbers 3, 6, 7, 10, 13, 14, and 17 are frequently seen in weekly wagering spreads. In some cases, you see larger spreads, but these are core numbers in pro football. In addition, you will also see how the hook comes into play when placing wagers.
Let’s continue with the Chiefs/Raiders game and list the Chiefs at -7.5. The Chiefs would be the favorite play and the Raiders the underdog play. At 7.5, this would be an underdog line and the Raiders would be a wager that can give you a betting edge. The reason being, that the probable outcome based on the core spread numbers would be Chiefs by 7.
Continuing with this scenario, we have three wagering options to get us on the right number and get a betting edge. We could buy the hook and get the line down to Chiefs -7 to protect our bet, buy a full point and get a betting edge with the Chiefs at -6.5, or play the Raiders at +7.5 to get a betting edge.
Further examples, -2.5 would be a favorite number and in turn, 3.5 would be an underdog number. The same for 9.5 and 10.5 and so forth. These are examples of how to get the right number.
Final Thoughts
Do not look at these examples as absolutes, but keep in mind the targeted 52.4 percent win rate. The goal is to be a profitable sports bettor. Be diligent and persistent, spot a reverse line movement, and get a betting edge. On sides and total wagers, get the right number to get the betting edge. Remember your core football wagering numbers of three, seven, and 10. Check various sites and shop for the best lines to get the betting edge.
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