The 2024 NFL season is right around the corner and now is a great time to start looking at some futures bets. There are player props on Fanduel for DK Metcalf and Jayden Reed that look really enticing, so let’s take a deeper look.
We first need to understand how these lines are set. Preseason player props are interesting because they are calculated using risk coefficients such as injury probability. This is why each and every NFL player prop line for the upcoming season seems diluted. There are opportunities to make money with guys who are durable and there are opportunities with surging young players. Books like Fanduel are hesitant to juice the lines on players who could potentially make a second or third year jump. Let’s dive into some picks!
Fanduel NFL Player Props
Jayden Reed “Over” 760.5 Receiving Yards: Fanduel -112
This line is insane, a surging #1 option in a Packers offense who were all-around awesome down the stretch last year has a line at 760.5? Jayden Reed has never experienced any serious injuries and has only missed a couple games in college and the pros.
Christian Watson was banged up last year and there are plenty of young talented mouths to feed in that offense. However, Jayden Reed has all of the tools to force Jordan Love to get him the football. Reed grabbed 64 balls and racked up 793 receiving yards in 16 games last year as a rookie. Reed averaged five catches for 57.5 yards through the last eight games of the regular season when the Packers really started rolling. That’s on pace for 85 catches for 977 yards through a full 17 games in just his rookie season.
I only expect Jayden Reed to take a second-year leap, challenge Watson as the top target, and even eclipse the 1000-yard mark if he can stay healthy. Take the over!
DK Metcalf “Over” 950.5 Receiving yards: Fanduel -112
DK Metcalf obviously has not been the top five alphas in the league like we expected him to be. However, he has been pretty awesome despite a below-average quarterback throwing to him.
I think most of my confidence in this line lies in the fact that he has played in at least 16 games in each of his five seasons. In those seasons, he surpassed the 950-yard mark in four of the five. Metcalf’s target share went down last year, but the new coaching regime and offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb will find a way to get their number one guy the ball. Grubb will use Metcalf in a similar role to Chicago Bears rookie wide receiver Rome Odunze, who he coached in college at Washington last season.
Lastly and most convincingly, the duo of DK Metcalf and quarterback Geno Smith produced 1,521 “air yards” last season, the 12th highest in the NFL. This stat indicates that if Metcalf caught every ball thrown to him and was stuck to that spot, he would have had just shy of 1600 yards. The opportunities were there last season, and they will continue to be there in 2024. It is impossible to see him falling short of this line if he plays in 15+ games.
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