Week 6 in the CFL wraps up with a more compelling matchup than one would have guessed before the season started.
The winless Edmonton Elks are coming off 17 days rest as they host the Ottawa Redblacks and try to get over the hump on Sunday night finally. After going 0-4 the last three seasons, this season might be the most frustrating 0-4 start yet. In the previous two seasons, the Elks have just been bad. It’s as simple as that. This year, however, their offense has looked pretty strong, they’ve lost every game by one score, and three games by a field goal.
On the other hand, it’s hard to pinpoint precisely what Ottawa is. They’ve split the season series against a Winnipeg team that has struggled but has also made it to four straight Grey Cups. They were also demolished by the Alouettes and beat the league’s worst team by two points.
As lackluster as this game may appear, we’re in for a compelling matchup.
Ottawa Redblacks (2-2) vs. Edmonton Elks (0-4) Odds
Team |
Spread |
Total |
MoneyLine |
| Ottawa | +3.5 (-118) | Over 50.5 (-110) | +150 |
| Edmonton | -3.5 (-102) | Under 50.5 (-110) | -180 |
**Odds Subject to Change** |
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Ottawa Redblacks vs. Edmonton Elks Match Details
- Fixture: Ottawa Redblacks @ Edmonton Elks
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Date and Time: July 14, 7:00 pm EST
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Location: Edmonton, Alberta
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Weather: 74 degrees, Clear skies, Wind 6 MPH
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Field Type: Turf
Apex Tale of the Tape
| Ottawa | vs. | Edmonton |
| 2-2 | Record | 0-4 |
| 21.0 | Points Per Game | 24.5 |
| 108.8 | Rushing Yards Per Game | 61.0 |
| 230.3 | Passing Yards Per Game | 306.3 |
| 52.8 | Offensive Plays Per Game | 54.8 |
| 41.2% | 2nd Down Conversion | 57.3% |
| 28.3 | Points Allowed | 28.8 |
| 6 | Sacks | 8 |
| 2 | Interceptions | 3 |
| 105.8 | Rushing Yards Allowed | 108.5 |
| 282.0 | Passing Yards Allowed | 279.8 |
| -4 | Turnover Ratio | -2 |
| 28:29 | Time of Possession Per Game | 28:19 |
Key Stats
Ottawa Redblacks (2-2)
The Redblacks received some good news earlier this week. QB Dru Brown passed concussion protocol and has been cleared to start.
Brown has had a mediocre start to the season, passing for 819 yards, three touchdowns, and one pick. The upside is his longest pass and 52 yards, and he’s thrown five balls over 30+ yards, which is tied for fifth in the CFL. That bodes well for Ottawa, considering their success in running the ball against this defense, which should open up the passing game.
Running back Ryquell Armstead is second in the CFL with 275 yards, with the highest per-carry average amongst running backs with 5.6 yards. Edmonton’s run defense is abysmal, while Ottawa’s running game is near the best in the CFL.
They net only 316.8 yards per game, which is eighth in the CFL, but the Elks allow 372.8 yards per game, which is in the bottom half of the league. We’ll see what gives on Sunday night.
Assessing this team defensively is tricky coming into this game. They can’t stop the run to save their lives, allowing 105.8 yards per game. Their pass defense is pretty good, allowing only 282 yards per game, which is fourth in the CFL. The problem is that Edmonton can’t run the ball, but their passing attack is among the best in the league.
They’re also in the bottom half of the league in points allowed per game, allowing 28.3
Edmonton Elks (0-4)
The Edmonton Elks are the definition of a team that relies solely on their offense. They only score 24.5 scores per game, but based on their passing numbers, that number should be higher.
QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson is fourth in the CFL in yards and touchdowns, with 1,225 and seven, respectively, averaging 306.3 yards per game.
Receiver Dillon Mitchell is sixth in the CFL with 355 yards. He has only one TD, but the Elks pass the ball around the lineup when it comes to the endzone.
The problem with that is that overall, they average 353.5 yards per game, meaning their run game leaves much to be desired. They are averaging only 61 yards per game on the ground, and since Ottawa has one of the worst run defenses, it’ll be interesting to see if they can exploit it.
On the defensive side of the ball, they are neck and neck with the Redblacks. They both average around 28 points allowed per game, they are both hovering around 375 yards allowed per game, they both allow around 280 pass yards per game, and they are two of the worst run defenses in the CFL.
Prediction
The truth is, the Elks offense has deserved a better fate. Their defense choked away a double-digit lead in Week 1, and they’ve lost every game by a field goal. As good as Ottawa’s running game is, and as bad as Edmonton’s run defense is, the CFL is a passing league, and Bethel-Thompson will get the job done on Sunday night.
Ottawa allows 282 passing yards per game, but two of their games were against Winnipeg, which averages only 218.6 yards per game passing. Against Montreal, they gave up 393 passing yards, and against Hamilton, they gave up 322. Take McLeod Bethel-Thompson OVER 306.5 yards (-115).
On the opposite side of the spectrum, Edmonton gives up 108.5 rushing yards per game. Ottawa runs for 108.8 yards per game, while Redblacks RB Ryquell Armstead accounts for 68.8 of those yards. Take OVER 69.5 yards (-115), as they have yet to play a run defense as bad as this one.
Final Pick
Edmonton -3.5 (-115)
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