We’re getting closer to the Wimbledon finish line and we’ve got a quarterfinal matchup between the most dominant player in men’s tennis and the hottest American player. Despite his recent dominance, Carlos Alcaraz’s road to this match has been tough.
Alcaraz had a battle against Frances Tiafoe on Friday, going to five sets, including a fourth set tiebreaker which the Spaniard won.
Tommy Paul had a pretty easy path to the quarterfinals though. Only two of his matches have gone more than three sets and he has only played one ranked player: 23rd-ranked Alexander Bublik in the third round.
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Tommy Paul Odds
Player |
Spread |
Total Games |
MoneyLine |
| Carlos Alcaraz | -5.5 | O 38.5 | -400 |
| Tommy Paul | +5.5 | U 38.5 | +310 |
**Odds Subject to Change** |
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Carlos Alcaraz A vs. Tommy Paul Match Details
- Fixture: Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul
- Date and Time:
- July 9, 2024 @ 9:15 AM ET
- Location: The All England Lawn Tennis Club
- Court Surface: Grass
Apex Tale of the Tape
| Carlos Alcaraz | vs. | Tommy Paul |
| 3 | Rank | 13 |
| Spain | Country | United States |
| 26-6 | YTD W/L | 27-10 |
| 2-2 | H2H Record | 2-2 |
| 6’0 | Height | 6’1 |
| 163 lbs | Weight | 180 lbs |
| 65% | First Serve % | 61% |
| 21 | Age | 27 |
| 829 | Aces | 1,304 |
| 512 | Double Faults | 593 |
| 2,132 | Break Point Opportunities | 2,009 |
| 41% | Break Points Won | 39% |
| 32% | Return Games Won | 24% |
| 83% | Service Games Won | 80% |
Key Stats
Carlos Alcaraz
Carlos Alcaraz has had a fantastic season this year. Winning 81 percent of your matches is certainly no small feat. Despite his injuries, Alcaraz added an Indian Wells and French Open title to his 14 championships in a short but illustrious career.
The 21-year-old can win on both sides of the ball, forcing many break point opportunities and winning a good percentage (41%) of those chances. When on serve, Alcaraz holds his own most of the time. He is an athletic player with a tremendous motor and good movement. The Spaniard is a tough out in almost any match.
Tommy Paul
Like Alcaraz, Tommy Paul has also won two titles this year. After Paul won the Queens Club tournament in London on June 23rd, he became the #1 ranked American. He didn’t hold that ranking for very long as Taylor Fritz won the Eastbourne tournament just a week later.
Tommy Paul capitalizes on short balls and has great speed and effectiveness coming into the net. With his massive serve, getting up to a maximum of 136 miles per hour, he is a threat on the court. Paul can end points very quickly on his racket, serving 1,304 aces this year. He can also create a lot of break point opportunities, recording more than 2,000 and having just 129 less than Alcaraz.
The American is less successful as a return overall, winning just 24 percent of his return games this year. Nevertheless, he is a formidable opponent and will look to build off his Queens Club win just a couple of weeks ago.
Prediction
I think this match is going to be closer than some people might think. Carlos Alcaraz has had a lot of long matches so far at Wimbledon. With his injury history this year and the fatigue that will likely be a factor with playing so many four-set matches, this might be a tough match against Tommy Paul. The American will be the fresher player coming into this match so that is why I am picking him to win this match.
If Alcaraz went to five sets with Tiafoe, there is a good chance he can go to five sets with Paul but come out on the wrong side.
It’s not like Paul has played bad competition either this year despite having an easy Wimbledon path so far. He has seven top-25 wins in 2024. Alcaraz also has seven top-25 wins despite playing fewer matches. Paul’s powerful serve is going to play huge in this match, throwing the Spaniard off his game as well as winning points at the net. Alcaraz has had a good run but his dominance can only last for so long.
Final Pick
Tommy Paul +5.5 and +310
About the Author
Cooper Sherman is an avid NFL fan and enjoys watching and covering it the most. The NFL is king. He previously wrote and was a podcaster for the online publications Pro Sports Fanatics and Jersey Column. He is also an NBA fan and watches it occasionally, more when the NFL season ends. Tennis is also an underrated sport to watch. His teams are the Patriots and Celtics, as tough as it is to be a Patriots fan right now. He is optimistic that Jerod Mayo will turn this team in the right direction! Follow him on Instagram and Threads @coopstershermy456, and X/Twitter @justcoopthings.
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