Big Ten Tournament Preview, Predictions, and Odds | March 13-17, 2024

Illinois Fighting Illini vs Iowa Hawkeyes

The Big Ten Conference Tournament officially begins today, and will culminate with the championship game on Sunday. After a regular season full of predictable juggernauts (Purdue) and disappointing squads (Michigan State), the competition is each program’s last chance to make an impression on the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee ahead of Selection Sunday. Of course, the winner of the tournament will be one of 32 teams to automatically qualify for March Madness.

All games will be played at the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Superstar center Zach Edey and Purdue will look to defend the title, while bubble teams like Iowa will try to string together wins and sneak into the NCAA Tournament.

Who will take the crown on Sunday evening?

Big Ten Tournament Betting Odds

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Purdue +100
Illinois +300
Nebraska +700
Michigan State +1000
Wisconsin +1500
Northwestern +1600
Iowa +3500
Ohio State +3500
Maryland +6000
Indiana +6000
Minnesota +10000
Penn State +15000
Rutgers (Caesar’s Sportsbook) +25000
Michigan +35000

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Big Ten Tournament Details

Dates: Wednesday, March 13 – Sunday, March 17, 2024

Location: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN

Total Apex Tale of the Tape

Illinois Indiana Iowa Maryland Michigan Michigan State Minnesota
W/L 23-8 18-13 18-13 15-16 8-23 18-13 18-13
Streak W1 W4 L1 L3 L8 L1 L2
B10 W/L 14-6 10-10 10-10 7-13 3-17 10-10 9-11
PPG 84.2 70.5 79.1 67 68.1 69.9 72.5
OPPG 76.7 73.7 80.5 67.6 79.6 67.5 75.3
RPG 39.2 34.8 38.0 35.1 35.7 37.7 35.8
APG 16.1 15.2 16.4 15.4 11.5 17.5 15.6
BPG 3.4 3.6 3.6 4.1 3.3 3.1 4.5
SPG 4.4 4.9 6.1 5.7 3.9 7 6.2
Fouls 16.9 20.2 17.6 17.9 17.1 16.2 16.3
FG% 47 47.7 46.9 40.5 42.3 44.7 45.6
3PT% 36.6 33.4 34.9 28 34.2 37.7 34.9
FT% 78.6 75.0 75.4 71.0 73.2 77.4 71.9
OFG% 45.8 42.4 47.1 42.9 48.2 43.5 46.6
O3PT% 38.8 32.6 35.2 30.4 35.5 35.2 38.1
******** Nebraska Northwestern Ohio State Penn State Purdue Rutgers Wisconsin
W/L 22-9 21-10 19-12 15-16 28-3 15-16 19-12
Streak W2 W1 W4 W1 W5 L3 L1
B10 W/L 12-8 12-8 9-11 9-11 17-3 7-13 11-9
PPG 75.7 75.7 72.1 75.2 82.9 64.5 74.4
OPPG 72.2 73.5 72.6 77.6 72.6 70.2 72.1
RPG 35.7 30.5 34.3 31.2 40.3 36.6 33.5
APG 14.9 14.8 12.4 13.4 18.1 11.2 12.5
BPG 2.5 2.9 4.9 3.4 3.3 5 1.8
SPG 6.5 6.4 5.2 8.1 4.8 7.8 6.1
Fouls 15.8 17.9 16.7 18.3 14.2 17 15.9
FG% 45.9 46 44.1 44.7 48.5 38.6 46.4
3PT% 37.8 42.4 32.8 34.9 41.8 29.2 35
FT% 73.3 67.1 79.1 71.7 74.8 70.2 71.2
OFG% 41.6 47 44.6 47.1 43.3 43 46.9
O3PT% 34.7 36.7 37.6 31.9 35.8 35.1 39.3

Tournament Prediction

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No. 3 Purdue and No. 13 Illinois are far and away the favorites, as they should be. The only ranked schools in the conference finished numbers one and two respectively in the standings. The Boilermakers won the regular season title by a solid margin, finishing ahead of the Fighting Illini by three games.

While Nebraska and Northwestern will also receive double-byes, it’s hard to take them as seriously. Although the Cornhuskers have a couple of signature wins under their belt, they also have a few bad losses. They put the league on notice with an 88-72 victory over then-No. 1 Purdue on Jan. 9, but have also gotten blown out by Iowa and Maryland. The Wildcats also beat No. 1 Purdue on Dec. 1, but they then got embarrassed by then-No. 9 Illinois 96-66 on Jan. 2.

The Boilermakers won both of their regular-season matchups against the Fighting Illini. However, each game was close, ending 83-78 and 77-71. Barring an upset, these teams could easily face each other for a third time in the tournament final. While it’s hard to bet against Purdue, Illinois is the value pick here. The Illini, led by guard Terrence Shannon Jr. (21.6 PPG), present a larger payout while still having a solid chance of winning. The squad has won six of its last eight and has a chance to climb the NCAA Tournament seed line with a string of wins here.

Final Pick

Illinois Fighting Illini +300

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Joshua is a diehard Yankees, Jets, Knicks, Rutgers, and Tottenham Hotspur fan. He started his journalism career as the Sports Editor for the Rutgers University newspaper. When he’s not watching a game or writing about one, you can find him in an art-house movie theater or writing a screenplay. Follow him on X @joshvaldez100.

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