Best NBA Bets & Predictions for Playoff Series | April 23, 2025

If you love betting overs, you will hate the NBA playoffs in 2025. In 15 games thus far, the total points have hit the under in 12 of those. That is a lopsided start in the first round. Not only are the unders hitting, but they are hitting with ease. The average point differential is 17.57 points lower than the opening O/U. That is almost 18 points a game lower than expected!

The books are overshooting these numbers, signaling two trains of thought. First, the public is so excited about playoff basketball that money is heavy on the overs at the books. Fans love betting overs, so that makes sense. But the second is more logical. The books are not adjusting to playoff-intensity defense, teams tightening rotations, and a slower pace. Open your sportsbook now and bet the under because the lines are moving. Here’s the Best NBA Bets & Predictions.

Best NBA Bets Over/Under Odds

Best NBA Bets Over/Under Match Details

• Orlando Magic vs. Boston Celtics. 7:00 Eastern. Boston, MA 
• Miami Heat vs. Cleveland Cavaliers. 7:30 Eastern. Cleveland, OH
• Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets. 9:30 Eastern. Houston, TX

Key Stats

The playoff teams are not messing around on defense this postseason. Postseason scoring is 9.2 points lower than the regular season average so far. Players constantly attack ball-handlers as they pass half-court, a sight for sore eyes after the regular season’s final month of lackluster defensive effort. Coaches tighten their rotation to get the best players on both sides of the ball – and it shows.

Prediction

Magic vs. Celtics Under 196.5

The Magic may catch a break with Celtic’s star Jayson Tatum listed as doubtful. If Tatum sits, the under is a juicer opportunity. Removing an All-Star takes another dominant scorer off the floor. The Magic could adjust by finding offense from other players or increasing the pace, but the Celtics still look strong at home. Our model projects for 193.5, so this is a clever play. The line has moved down throughout the day, diminishing the value. Bet the under 196.5 now.

Heat vs. Cavaliers Under 211.5 

The Cavaliers never make taking an under a slam dunk. They upped their pace from 99.8 in the regular season to 100 in game one. Hopefully, Coach Spoelstra’s coaching experience will tell him to slow the pace in Game Two. The Heat’s 9th-ranked defense limits teams to 110 points per game on average this season. If Miami can find a way to get the defense to show up, this should adjust back to the mean and follow the under-trend we are seeing throughout the rest of the league. Our model has this game’s O/U at 210.0.

Warriors vs. Rockets Under 204.5 

Game one was ugly. The Rockets’ offense never found a flow. Houston shot 39.1% from the field, including an abysmal 20.7% from the 3-point line. The books are making corrections, but it is hard to justify based on the magnitude of points in which game totals are going under. Plus, the Warriors were active on defense, making the Rockets turn the ball over 17 times. Look for the Warriors to continue upping the ante on defense as our model projects 198.5 points in this game.

Final Picks- Take all three Unders