Thanks to the Houston Texans kicking game, we narrowly missed the parlay hit and a clean sweep. That is life in the sports world though, as we move onto Championship Sunday. Last week’s 2-1 result brought our seasonal record to 35-26 ATS. Please remember to play these on a money line parlay and straight-up because parlays are not a long-term profitable betting strategy.
Our weekly picks target games seeing respected money and those where Vegas books have a heavy liability—in other words, the betting outcome that Vegas books need to profit on the day. The betting lines discussed are the consensus at Vegas Insider and are subject to change.
Please continue to check this article link or via social media to view the bonus leans section, which will be updated Sunday morning with additional sharp plays or Vegas Sportsbook needs. It’s Championship Sunday so let’s finish with a bang, we will do our best to get you three winners, and remember: Follow or Fade!
Parlay Leg #1: Washington Commanders +7.5 (Alternate Spread)
The opening leg of our parlay will be the Washington Commandeers +7.5 over the Philadelphia Eagles. The line opened up at -5.5 on Sunday night and it currently resides at 6. Washington will be a popular play I am sure and that worries us. However, upon researching the game, Vegas books are expecting to need an outright Washington and more specifically an outright Commanders win. These two teams split the regular season series with both teams winning at home.
Washington is 4-1 ATS in their last five overall and 6-3-1 ATS in their last ten as an underdog. Finally, Washington quarterback Jayden Daniels is 5-2-1 ATS as an underdog this season. We will buy the number up to 7.5 to get a betting edge and back the Commanders +7.5 for play number one.
Parlay Leg #2: Washington Commanders-Philadelphia Eagles over 47 (Alternate Total)
With us expecting the underdog Commanders to play well versus the Eagles, we will piggyback off that and take over 47 in the middle leg. In their three playoff games, all on the road, Washington is averaging 30.33 points per game. The over is a profitable 6-4 in both the Commanders’ last 10 overall and on the road. Other the side, the over is 4-1 in the Eagles’ last five overall versus the Commanders and 7-3 in the last ten as a favorite versus them. We will buy the half-point down and take over 47 for play number two.
Parlay Leg #3: Buffalo Bills-Kansas City Chiefs over 46 (Alternate Total)
The anchor leg was the toughest decision for us, with the game being close to a pick ’em. So we decided to play on the total and take over 46. With both teams featuring two of the game’s best signal callers, we will bank on the offenses to carry us.
The over is 7-3 in the Bills’ last ten overall and Buffalo is averaging 28 points per game in their two playoff games. Kansas City does not possess great numbers playing to the over this season, however, the over is a profitable 3-2 in their last five as a favorite against the Bills. We will buy the total down a point and a half and close it out with Bills-Chiefs over 46!
Total Parlay Odds: ATS+436 / ML+928
*Odds Via FanDuel Sportsbook and Subject to Change*
Bonus Leans: TBD on social media
