No parlay hit for us in week 16 but it was another profitable week hitting on two of three selections. This brings our NFL seasonal record to 28-18 ATS and our bonus leans went 1-1. Remember, we will play these picks on a money line parlay, and straight-up because parlays are not a profitable betting strategy. We tend to avoid public plays, which are traditionally the betting favorites.
Our weekly parlay targets games seeing respected money and those where Vegas books have a heavy liability—in other words, the betting outcome that Vegas books need to profit on the day. The betting lines discussed are the consensus at Vegas Insider and are subject to change.
Please continue to check this article link or via social media to view the bonus leans section, which will be updated with additional sharp plays and the Vegas Sportsbook needs. Let’s get right to it with week 16: follow or fade.
Parlay Leg #1: Cleveland Browns/Cincinnati Bengals over 46 (Alternate Total)
Play number one this week will be the Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals over 46. This is a system play that we use in rematch games. The first meeting between these teams in week 7 went under the posted total of 42.5. The betting edge we discussed in our wagering series, calls for us to play on the over in the rematch. The over is 4-1 in the Bengal’s last five games. 7-3 in their last ten overall and 8-2 in their last ten at home. That pairs nicely with a Browns defense that gives up over 25 points per game.
On the other side, the Bengals rank 27th in total defense, and the over is 6-4 in Cleveland’s last ten road games. We will buy the number down to 46 and back the over in the Browns-Bengals rematch in the opening parlay leg.
Parlay Leg #2: Washington Commanders +3.5
The middle leg will be the Washington Commanders +3.5 over the Philadelphia Eagles. We are fading the public here as the Eagles are seeing 70% of the tickets and 81% of the money bets. The Commanders are 8-5-1 ATS overall this season and in a revenge spot here after losing to Philly in week 11, 26-18. Washington is 5-4-1 ATS in their last ten at home versus Philadelphia and 5-3-2 ATS in their last ten as a dog versus the Eagles. The dog will be barking in this one, Washington +3.5 for play number two.
Parlay Leg #3: Buffalo Bills/New England Patriots over 46 (Alternate Total)
To round out our parlay, we take the over 46 between the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots. Josh Allen and the Bills come in ranked 7th in both total offense and passing offense. Buffalo scores nearly 32 points per game and has amassed 125 total points in their last three games. The over is 7-3 in the Bill’s last ten overall and 8-2 in their last ten at home. To go even further, there was over 7-2-1 in Buffalo’s last ten games versus the Patriots.
On the other side, New England quarterback Drake Maye is competent enough to put some points up versus a Buffalo defensive that allowed 43 points a game to the Rams and Lions. The over is also 7-3 in the Patriots’ last ten games. We will buy the half point and get the total down to 46 to close out the week 16 parlay!
Total Parlay Odds: ATS +559 / ML +792
*Odds Via FanDuel Sportsbook and Subject to Change*
Bonus Leans: TBD Sunday morning
